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Good Chance Showers/Storms, Some Severe.

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Many locations picked up some badly needed rainfall over the course of the weekend.  Shown is the 4 day rainfall totals to include what fell Friday night through this morning, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  As you can see, not everyone got a good soaking but at least it was a start and more rain is on the way.

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The northerly winds behind that storm system brought some cooler air back over us and the lingering cloud cover over the more NE counties kept temperatures particularly cool through the day today.  You can see the impact those clouds had on our afternoon high temperature as some locations did not even make it to 60 this afternoon whereas the sunshine brought other locations into the 70s.  For Tulsa, we have had a relatively short thermometer with a max/min of 64/54.  Click here to see the extremes and normal values for any date.

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Those northerly winds will be settling down tonight and our skies becoming fair so that will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s for most of us to start the day on Tuesday.  As the day wears on, our winds will become more E to SE and pick back up to 10-20 mph by late in the day.  Look for temperatures to moderate through the 60s and into the low 70s by afternoon.

WARN Interactive Radar

Clouds will also be on the increase in advance of the next storm system which will be pushing another round of showers/storms across the state starting Tuesday night, extending through Wednesday and into the day Thursday.  Some of those storms could be severe on both days as this looks to be a very vigorous system.

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Right now, the timing suggests a line of showers/storms forming across far W OK during the afternoon hours of Tuesday, reaching Green Country for the late evening through the overnight hours.  Wednesday morning should start off wet for most of us but there is the potential for a dry slot to move overhead by afternoon before the backside of the storm system brings another round of showers/storms for that night and into the day Thursday.  As is usually the case with systems such as this, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the exact positioning of the main storm center aloft, the associated surface features, and the impact on temperatures and storm mode. 

Weather Alerts

Since this system is moving in so quickly on the heels of our weekend system, the quality and depth of the low level moisture return is very uncertain which will have a huge impact on the available instability for storm mode.  Even so, the strength of the winds at the low-mid levels suggests the dynamics will certainly be sufficient for all modes and may be enough to overcome the possible limitations on instability.  At any rate, certainly advise keeping a close eye on this developing weather scenario over the next two days as it could get very interesting once again.

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As mentioned, Thursday looks to be on the backside of the storm system with some wrap-around showers/thunder possible and a brisk NW wind holding temperatures into the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies.  As you can see on our forecast page, Friday looks to be on the only dry day of this forecast cycle as yet another storm system will be heading this way over the coming weekend.  Right now, most of Saturday looks to be dry with rain chances possibly ramping up that night or more likely into the Sunday/Monday time frame.  The timing/track/strength of this system is very uncertain since it is currently well out in the Pacific.  Bottom line though is that we will be having a series of storm systems coming our way this week and into early next week with the potential not only for severe weather, but some widespread, soaking rains.

Notice the 7 day QPF which is painting the entire state with significant amounts of badly needed moisture.  These rains may or may not turn out to be drought breakers but should at least put a big dent in our ongoing drought situation.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.  It certainly could get interesting in the days ahead.

Dick Faurot

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