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Chilly Tonight, Next Chance Storms This Weekend.

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Pretty short thermometer today as the lingering cloud cover and a brisk NW breeze has kept us from warming much today.  So far, the max/min for Tulsa stands at 52/46, and you can click here to see what the normal and extreme values are for this date or any other date for that matter.  As you can see on the map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, the more SW counties were much warmer today.

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The persistent cloud deck over NE OK had a lot to do with the cooler temperatures we have experienced today along with those brisk NW winds.  Look for the winds to calm down after sunset, but the clouds will be rather slow to clear out and there are some indications that we may not be completely clear by morning.  Also, despite those brisk NW winds, the dew point temperature has been holding in the 40s and looking upstream into KS, dew points up there are also holding in the 40s.  Both of those factors will impact how cold it will be tonight as the dew point is often a lower limit to what the air temperature can be and the cloud cover acts like a blanket.  With those two factors in mind, will keep temperatures tonight generally in the lower 40s although the possibility does exist that the normally cooler valley locations may briefly make it into the upper 30s.  If so, that could result in some patchy frost for a few locations, but it is not expected to be widespread.

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After the chilly start, the rest of the day Friday looks very pleasant.  We expect lots of sunshine and a more E/NE wind of 10-15 mph will keep temperatures generally in the 60s for most of the day, topping out around the 70 degree mark.  Saturday will be warmer with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs well into the 70, possibly near 80 for some locations.  Clouds will also be on the increase again in advance of the next storm system that is coming our way.  The current timing suggests that we should be dry for most of Saturday with our best chance of showers and storms during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.  Clouds will linger through the day along with at least a chance of showers Sunday, and the system looks to be rather slow in moving out  so lingering showers and some storms will be possible for the Sunday night and into the Monday morning time frame as you can see on our forecast page.

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Since this system will be impacting the more western counties earlier in the day Saturday and is expected to slow down somewhat in its eastward progression, then the more western counties look to gain the most from the rains this next system will produce.  Notice the 1-3 day QPF which will cover that time frame and the more western counties certainly look to have a better chance for another round of good rains.

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The more western counties have also received most of the rainfall from the more active pattern we have had over the last week or two.  Notice the 14 day rainfall totals across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and our western neighbors have finally picked up some good rains.  Those rains will certainly put a dent to the ongoing drought situation.

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And, as might be expected given the time of year, just about any time we have a chance of showers and storms, have to consider the possibility that a few may become severe.  Right now, it appears that wind/hail would be the primary threats for the Saturday night time frame and it looks to be a low end threat at that.

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After that, Monday into Tuesday would be warmer with another cool front likely arriving on Wednesday.  Right now, that particular system does not appear particularly wet with only a slight chance of showers.  But, the current data runs do suggest it will be followed by a return to very cool conditions once again for the Wed/Thu time frame before another warm-up takes place going into that following weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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