Sunday evening’s severe weather potential was limited and turned out to be a bust for most of the Southern Plains.  The CAP, a warm layer of air in the lower to mid-levels of the atmosphere, prevented robust storm development with an incoming wave of energy. Had the storms fired, we would have seen some very chunky hail and strong winds. The storm threat isn’t entirely over for the night though as a cold front approaches the region. This sets the stage for an active next few weeks of weather in Green Country.

                While the dry line storms didn’t pan out, the cold front may still generate a narrow band of convection overnight and into our Monday morning. Severe weather with this is not anticipated, but it could impact early morning commuters. This is a slow-moving front so by Monday afternoon, the storm potential will remain near the Arkansas border and along/south of the I-40 corridor. Tulsa may luck out with a nice rest of the day following a potential early morning downpour.

                The weather to follow will be downright gorgeous. Lower amounts of moisture behind the front will allow for temperatures to dip into the 40s Tuesday morning and offer a nice rebound into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to some sunshine.

                The quiet spell will be a short one with another storm system pushing into the region late Wednesday. While the timing isn’t nailed down quite yet, it appears some heavy and perhaps severe storms may develop that night and make a run at our region. In fact, we may see scattered storms in the area into Friday as this storm system slows itself down. All the while, southerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to increase both our temperatures and the moisture levels. By Friday afternoon, our highs are cresting 80° again.

                Heading into Easter Weekend, it’ll be warm and windy. A cold front will try to make a run at our area as early as Saturday night, bringing the potential for more rain and storms. As of now, Easter could be wet at times with cloud-filled skies. However, it’s still a week out, and until the weekend storm system moves ashore on the West Coast, we won’t have the best sampling to model it as accurately. Therefore, we expect quite a few fluctuations for Easter’s forecast until the end of the week. At this point, though, I can say Saturday does look better for an outdoor egg hunt than Sunday if you want to avoid rain.

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                Speaking of rain, the totals now through Easter Sunday are looking rather healthy for at least the northern section of the state. This will continue to curb our drought, which is subsiding in intensity, especially west of Tulsa where higher rainfall amounts have occurred in the past two weeks. The outlook beyond Easter through that following week also looks wetter than normal. The 8 to 14 Day outlook below speaks to a continued active pattern with the conveyer belt of systems racing eastward from the West Coast.

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                So far, Green Country has been largely spared of severe weather (aside from the hail storms last Tuesday) despite the frequency of storm systems. As the quality of Gulf moisture returning northward improves due to increased heating this season, these storm systems will likely prove less benign. Severe weather season is now underway and it doesn’t take much to set off some big-time storms for our region now that the ingredients are becoming readily available.  Stay tuned and weather aware!  Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page for more weather updates!