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Active Pattern in the Coming Days.

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After the showers and some thunder moves on out later tonight, we should have a brief break for the rest of the day Friday and into Saturday before another system moves into the state in time for Easter Sunday followed by additional systems through next week.  In other words, it certainly looks like a rather active weather pattern over the next two weeks with only some occasional breaks.

As I write, the round of showers and some storms from earlier in the day have already dropped some impressive rainfall totals in some parts of the state as you can see with the data from the good folks at the OK Mesonet.  On our side of the state, there have been some localized amounts up to an inch or so, but it has been very spotty so far but there will be continued chances through the overnight hours.

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The current round of showers and embedded thunder should be exiting the more NE counties during the morning hours of Friday followed by some breaks in the clouds by the noon hour and a mix of clouds and sun for the afternoon and evening.  Together with gusty southerly winds, that means another much warmer than normal day with morning lows near 60 and daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  You can click here to see what the normal and record values are for this date.

Saturday will start off dry under partly cloudy skies but another storm system looks to be impacting our weather late that night and into the Sunday time frame.  That means increasing cloud cover during the day Saturday but at least it looks to be dry.  It will also be windy and warm with gusty southerly winds and morning lows in the lower 60s followed by daytime highs in the lower 80s once again.

The next system looks to be just strong enough to push a cool front into the state early Easter Sunday morning and then stalling out in the general vicinity between I-40 and Hwy 412.  Most of the energy aloft will be further north so the stalling surface frontal boundary looks to provide a focus for a widespread area of showers and embedded thunder by first thing Sunday morning which should be gradually tapering off later in the day.  As you can see, it will also be very warm for this time of year.

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That will be followed by a secondary surge of energy aloft providing another good chance of showers and some thunder for the Sunday night into the day Monday time frame.  Again, as you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will remain very warm throughout and with only the clouds and rain cooled air acting to keep temperatures from soaring back into the 80s during the day.

Given the potential for several rounds of showers and embedded thunder over the course of the next five days, there will also be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall as you can see on the 5 day QPF.  Keep in mind this is an areal average and does NOT mean that everyone will receive that much rainfall.  Some locations could receive much more while other locations nearby receive much less but at least there is the potential for some soaking rains.

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In fact, this unsettled pattern may well persist right on through next week, the following weekend, and well into the following week as well.  The 8-14 day guidance continues to suggest a wetter than normal signal for us along with temperatures at least running closer to normal.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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