Warm & Windy Saturday, Showers/Storms Easter Sunday.

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Weather Alerts

Certainly been a warm day today as you can see from the daytime highs across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  For Tulsa, so far today our max/min has been 83/63 and both numbers are way above normal.  Click here for what the normal and record values are for this date.

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It has also been a very windy day across the entire state with strong southerly winds contributing to the warmth.  Those winds will diminish somewhat overnight and with fair to partly cloudy overnight skies and dew point temperatures in the 50s, look for morning lows to drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s to start the day on Saturday.

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Saturday looks to be very warm and windy once again with temperatures and winds similar to today.  Partly cloudy skies will be the general rule and temperatures should once again make it into the 80s for daytime highs.  There will be some scattered showers/storms moving this way from W OK by first thing in the morning and a few may hold together long enough for some brief showers for locations NW of the I-44 corridor, but the chances are very slim. The balance of the day should then be dry area-wide along with the warm & windy conditions.

However, as we head into Saturday night and Sunday morning, a cool front moving across KS will be moving into the northern counties of OK.  Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding just how far south it will go before stalling out, the general consensus continues to suggest a good chance of showers and storms by the sunrise time period on Easter Sunday.  This does not mean a complete wash-out for Easter Sunrise Services nor for the rest of the day, but the data runs keep us with off and on showers/storms starting early Sunday morning and continuing into the day Monday.  As mentioned the boundary looks to stall out in this immediate area and will eventually become diffuse, but will still provide a focus for some widespread rains.  Also, the mostly cloudy skies will moderate temperatures somewhat with afternoon highs generally in the 70s.

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As you can see on our forecast page, we will maintain a good chance of showers/storms through the day Monday, but taper off the chances starting on Tuesday with little or no mention of rain by Wednesday along with continued very warm conditions for this time of year.  However, the longer range guidance is in remarkable agreement regarding a much stronger system developing and moving right over the state by late in the week followed by much cooler conditions for that following weekend.  At this time frame, there are more questions than answers, and it will be several more days before we get a better handle on what to expect from this storm system.  But, it certainly has the potential to be a significant weather maker for us.  Notice the 7 day QPF which will extend through next Friday is picking up on a very wet signal which would include the Sun/Mon activity of the next few days and then the next system coming this way later next week.  Keep in mind, this is an areal average and does NOT mean everyone will receive that much rainfall, but it certainly does suggest the potential is there for some significant moisture over the coming week or so.

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Not only that, but this unsettled pattern may well persist right on through the following week.  The 8-14 day guidance continues to suggest a wetter than normal signal for us along with temperatures at least running closer to normal.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot