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Big Warm-Up Ahead of Next Storm System.

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Certainly been an active weather pattern over the last few days.  Starting with the showers/storms from Thursday evening and into that night, then again for the Easter Sunday morning time frame and finally last night and into the morning hours of today.  As is often the case, the rainfall totals have been very generous for some, not so much for others.  For comparison purposes, the first map shows the 24 hour totals for the rainfall across the state as of late this afternoon, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.


This next map shows the rainfall totals over the last 4 days as of late this afternoon and the combination of the 3 separate events clearly shows that most of this side of the state has certainly picked up some badly needed moisture.  In fact, in some cases, there has been too much too fast and has resulted in some localized drainage issues.


A much more stable pattern will be the general rule for the next couple of days before another active pattern returns in time for the coming weekend.  For tonight, the clouds are expected to be thinning out by morning which together with light winds and the abundant low level moisture from the recent rains could result in some locally dense fog by first thing in the morning.  Also, the moisture levels will keep us from cooling much and most locations will be in the low 60s to start the day.  By way of reference, here is a link to the normal as well as the extremes for this time of year.

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After the morning fog burns off, we should have partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for the balance of the day and a southerly wind picking up to 10-20 mph as the day wears on.  That combination should push our daytime highs into the lower 80s for Tuesday afternoon.  Those southerly winds will be even stronger on Wednesday and with only some high level clouds expected there will be plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s after starting the morning in the low-mid 60s.

Then, the pattern undergoes another change as a cool front is expected to be pushing into the state by Thursday morning bringing another chance of showers and storms.  That will be followed by an even better chance of showers/storms for Friday and into the Saturday morning time frame.  The pattern will also be supportive of some locally heavy rainfall once again as you can see on the 7 day QPF map along with much cooler weather going into the weekend as you see on the forecast page.


As far as the severe potential, that is rather difficult to assess at this time frame as the position of the surface frontal boundary will be the real key in that regard.  The surface front is expected to stall out late Thursday and may move back northward as a warm front due to a strong storm system aloft moving over the state on Friday.  The problem is that the longer range guidance is having a great deal of difficulty in resolving where that boundary will be.  If it moves far enough north, that will put the Tulsa metro back into the warm sector with a greater likelihood of severe storms.  But, if it stays further south, then the warm sector and severe potential will most likely be further south as well.  About the best that can be said at this time frame is to expect a widespread area of showers/storms to be developing during the afternoon and evening and perhaps through the night on Friday and should be tapering off on Saturday.

As mentioned, much cooler conditions will follow with northerly winds for the weekend, but our skies should have cleared by Sunday so lots of sunshine will start another warm-up going into next week.  In fact, the 8-14 day outlook through next week once again has us with temperatures, on average, above normal but also with a continued potential for above normal rainfall.



So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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