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Next Storm System Mid to Late Week

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The 86 degrees recorded yesterday for an afternoon high is the hottest we have been since Mar 19, 20 when we were 88, 92 respectively.  In other words, in spite of how warm this weekend was, those two days back in March are still the hottest we have had so far this year.  In fact, we also recorded 86 for a daytime high back on Feb 11, 23 as you can see on the graphic.

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Today has been another warm, dry day; but again, well short of what we had back in March.  For Tulsa, so far our max/min has been 83/63 and you can click here to see what the normal and extreme values are for this time of year.

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At least we are starting to dry out somewhat with the full sun and very warm temperatures of recent days, but we will start seeing an increase in cloud cover over the next few days as our next storm system will be approaching.  For tonight, generally fair skies will prevail till near sunrise when some low level stratus clouds will likely be forming. This will be in response to an increase in low level moisture and although those clouds will be thinning out during the day, we will still see more of a sun/cloud mix.Together with southerly winds, that will have an impact on temperatures as we will start the day Tuesday in the lower 60s and should be in the lower 80s that afternoon.

For Wednesday, look for temperatures to again be in the 60s that morning and closer to 80 that afternoon due to more cloud cover and a brisk southerly wind.  There will also be a chance of showers and storms, some of which may be severe.  A few spotty showers may even pop up that morning but the late afternoon and particularly the evening/overnight hours will be the most likely time for storms. However, these should be rather widely scattered as Thursday still looks to be the more active day for showers/storms.

The storm system aloft will be weakening as it moves over OK on Thursday and we should keep southerly winds for most of the day which will keep us very warm.  Temperatures will be in the 60s again that morning, but mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers/storms should hold daytime temperatures into the 70s to near 80.  Some of the storms may be severe, but the widespread cloud cover and good chance of rain should act to keep the storm threat fairly manageable.  Current data runs, suggest the cold front associated with this system will not arrive till that night so the best chance of showers/storms looks to be late in the day and into the overnight hours with a few potentially lingering into Friday morning.  Since this system also looks to be moving steadily along, then rainfall totals are not currently projected to be extreme as you can see on the 5 day QPF.

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Brisk northerly winds on the backside of the system will keep Friday much cooler, but our skies should also be clearing late in the day.  After that, as you can see on our forecast page, we should have lots of sunshine for Mother’s Day weekend and a return to warmer temperatures.

The 8-14 day outlook also suggests temperatures on average will trend above normal and it also looks like another unsettled pattern for showers/storms as we head into that third week of May.  Keep in mind, May is normally our wettest month of the year and also has the highest likelihood of tornadoes.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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