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Showers/Storms Back in the Forecast.

Posted: Updated:
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Another warm day today with temperatures running above the seasonal normal values as you can see here.  So far, Tulsa has had a max/min of 84/60 and the map shows the max/min values for today across the state.

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More cloud cover during the day today will generally continue through the overnight hours.  In fact, we are expecting mostly cloudy skies for tonight through Wednesday and for that matter not really expecting clearing to take place till Friday afternoon.  The mostly cloudy skies together with brisk southerly winds will keep us from cooling much tonight and morning lows should generally be in the low-mid 60s.

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The mostly cloudy skies during the day Wednesday are also an indication of a deeper layer of moisture that could result in a few showers for the morning hours but the better chance is still expected later in the day and into the overnight hours.  Notice the rain meteogram which has a decent chance for tomorrow morning followed by a break in the action till late in the day and into the overnight hours when the chances ramp up again.  That should then be followed by another possible break in the action for Thursday morning followed by a better chance of showers/storms late Thursday and into Thursday night ahead of the cold front that will be sweeping across the state by then.

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Keep in mind this is May, so severe weather must always be a consideration anytime there is a chance of showers/storms.  But, this does not currently appear to be a major severe weather event either for Wednesday or Thursday here in Green Country.  Some of those storms will be severe and the most likely threat currently appears to be wind/hail but cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two as well.  Also, some locally heavy rains may occur with the stronger storms, but as you can see on the QPF projection, rainfall on average looks to be on the order of an inch or so.

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Notice also the position of the storm center aloft as of mid-day today over southern Arizona.  This shows the wind flow at the 500 mb level or about 18,000’ above sea level.  The colors are where the strongest winds are located, i.e. the jet stream at that level.  This system will be ejecting eastward over the next few days and will be weakening as it does so.  By Friday morning it will be SE of the state putting us on the backside.  That means brisk northerly winds, much cooler conditions, and clouds that should be slowly clearing from W-E during the day as you can see on our forecast page.

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That also means a good set-up for a very pleasant weekend as we will be between storm systems for several days.  Saturday morning will start off cooler than normal, but lots of sunshine and winds that will start off from the NE but shifting to the SE during the day should warm us up nicely that afternoon.  Sunday will be warmer yet with lots of sun and brisk southerly winds returning which will continue into early next week.  So, Mother’s Day is looking breezy and warm but will also be dry.

However, a return to a more unsettled pattern looks to be developing as we head into the middle of that following week and the 8-14 day outlook suggests an increased likelihood for showers/storms for that time frame.  Temperatures are also expected to be warmer than normal in the 8-14 day period. 

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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