TULSA, Oklahoma - A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning for a few hours before strong to severe storms will develop early afternoon and evening.   Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with storms this afternoon and tonight.   A tornado threat may occur in a few storms during the early formation periods this afternoon before storms start forming segments or clusters as they move across southeastern and east central Oklahoma.   Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.    After the system exits the area later tonight a few spotty showers will be possible early Friday morning to midday before ending.  The clouds will clear Friday afternoon from the northwest to southeast with improving conditions lasting through the weekend. 

A dry line will be advancing eastward later this afternoon and will be nearing the I-35 corridor region with a surface cold front sweeping across southern Kansas into north-central Oklahoma by later this afternoon and early evening.   Most data suggest the surface low may stay southwest of the metro for the evening ours, but a few model runs do hint at the surface low migrating closer to northeastern Oklahoma this afternoon.  If this occurs, local winds backing into the system may provide a window for an hour or two for supercell and tornado development.   But the main threats will eventually be very large hail and damaging winds along with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.    As the evening progresses storms are more likely to develop a line segment and move across southeastern or east central Oklahoma with a damaging wind and hail threat.   Significant flash flooding is not expected with this system due to the relatively fast nature.   

Early Friday morning the main upper level trough will be exiting the state with a mid-level ridge of high pressure developing over the southern plains for the weekend.   At the surface a ridge of high pressure will also develop bringing pleasant and sunny conditions back to eastern Oklahoma Saturday.   The ridge will break down and move eastward while another trough begins developing across the western half of the nation.   While the majority of this energy will remain to the northwest early next week, several disturbances will rotate around the base of the trough through the southwest flow helping to spark-off thunderstorms Tuesday through late next week.  

Thunderstorms are likely today.  Some may be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.   South winds will remain at 15 to 25 mph until later Thursday night when winds will shift out of the north.  

Friday the storms will end early.  Lows will be in the mid-50s with highs in the lower to mid-70s along with north winds and decreasing clouds by midday to afternoon.

Saturday morning the lows will be near 51 with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with sunshine and east to southeast winds.

Sunday the lows will be near 55.  The highs will be near the mid-80s Sunday into early next week.   We’ll see another chance of scattered storms Tuesday into next week.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone