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Interesting Forecast In The Coming Days

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The latter part of this week and into the weekend is looking mighty interesting with the potential for all modes of severe weather along with the possibility of flooding rainfall.  Notice the weather impacts chart which highlights those issues in the coming days.  Leading up to the main event will be a chance of showers and storms late Tuesday night and into the morning hours of Wednesday followed by a break in the action as one storm system moves out and another one reloads and comes our way for the Friday/Saturday time frame.

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Also, temperatures will be running above normal for a few more days until a cold front finally pushes through the state Saturday bringing below normal temperatures for the weekend and into that following week.  Speaking of above normal temperatures, today has been the warmest day of the month with a max/min of 88/64, but that is still a far cry from the 92 we recorded back on Mar 20.  Click here for a link to the normal and extreme values for this date or any other for that matter.  As you can see on the hi/lo map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, some of our western neighbors made it into the 90s this afternoon.

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For tonight, fair to partly cloudy skies but a persistent SE breeze will hold temperatures into the mid-upper 60s to start the day on Tuesday.  Showers and storms in far W OK tonight will fall apart before making it this far eastward, but the left over cloud cover will leave us with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies during the day.  We will keep a brisk SE breeze, but the extra cloud cover should hold daytime highs in the mid 80s so not quite as warm as it was today.

A stronger disturbance aloft will move out of the Southern Rockies Tuesday night spreading a more widespread area of showers/storms out of W OK and into Green Country for the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning.  Some of those storms will be severe for W OK, but are expected to be weakening as they move our way and arrive after the midnight hour. 

As that system kicks on out, we will be between weather makers for the rest of the day Wednesday and into the day Thursday, but will keep a slight chance of an isolated pop-up shower as you can see on our forecast page.  By and large, we should be back to partly cloudy afternoon skies for Wednesday and Thursday along with daytime highs back into the mid-upper 80s and gusty southerly winds.

However, a much stronger system in the Southern Rockies will then move our way with a better chance of showers/storms for early Friday morning but the best chance still looks to be Friday night into Saturday morning.  This will be a very dynamic system with all modes of severe weather possible along with the potential for flooding rainfall.  Speaking of which, notice the 7 day QPF map which once again paints a very wet picture over a very large area.  As always, keep in mind this is an areal average and there will be some locations receiving much more, others less.  Also, the timing of all this is still somewhat questionable and subsequent data runs in the coming days will help us fine tune these issues.

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Bottom line is, this looks to be a very interesting week ahead and advise keeping a close eye on this developing weather pattern.  Also, the 8-14 day outlook suggests an increased likelihood for showers/storms going through Memorial Day Weekend and temperatures are also expected to be cooler than normal in that 8-14 day period. 

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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