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Cool Again Wednesday, Then Much Warmer.

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So far, the warmest  we have been for the month of May has been 88 degrees which we have reached a couple of times, most recently on the 18th.  Since then, we have been much cooler than normal and today was certainly no exception as the max/min so far today has been 71/58 as compared to the normal values of 81/61.  Notice the max/min values across the state as recorded by the good folks at the OK Mesonet and you can see those cool conditions were statewide.  By the way, we will likely be cooler than that 58 before the midnight hour tonight.  Also, the warmest so far this year is still the 92 we recorded back on March 20. 

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Wednesday will be cooler yet with temperatures quickly dropping into the 50s tonight and bottoming out in the upper 40s to near 50 by morning.  At least we have had a few breaks in the clouds during the day today and current trends now suggest we should see a sun/cloud mix before the skies finally clear out by Wednesday evening.  Also, the passing light showers of today may linger into the night tonight but will be off to the east of us for Wednesday.

Brisk NW winds on Wednesday and cool air aloft will keep daytime temperatures very similar to what we experienced today with afternoon highs likely to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s at best.

After another cool start to Thursday morning with lows in the 40s to near 50, a return to southerly winds will initiate a significant warm-up for that afternoon.  Lots of sunshine along with gusty S/SE winds should push afternoon temperatures into the lower 80s and Friday will be warmer yet.  Also, some of the data runs suggest the return to southerly winds during the day will result in a low level jet strengthening that night which could produce some overnight showers/storms, but those will most likely be north of the OK/KS state line.

Friday now looks to be the warmest day of this forecast cycle but it is not without some big question marks.  The winds aloft will become more SW by then and the data runs now suggest a surface dry line will move east of I-35 that afternoon.  Ordinarily, that would be a set-up for big time severe storms, but a layer of very warm air aloft indicates the presence of a strong capping inversion which will make it difficult for storms to develop.  Even so, have included a very slight chance of a few storms for late in the day when the atmosphere will be most unstable.  Also, the presence of the pressure trough nearby suggests the winds will be relatively light and with dew point temperatures likely in the upper 60s, it will be uncomfortably hot and humid.  Just how hot is questionable as there may be enough cloud cover to keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.  Having said that, went ahead and brought the high up to 90 and it may well turn out to be warmer than that.

The surface dry line will mix back to the west Friday night but will make another push eastward on Saturday together with a cool front that now looks to move through this part of the state that afternoon/evening.  That suggests the potential for storms, some of which will most likely be severe.  As you can see on our forecast page, Saturday will also be very warm and humid along with the chance of storms.  By the way, any storms that do occur should be moving steadily along limiting the heavy rain potential as you can see on the 7 day QPF.

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But, assuming that cool front moves through as indicated, that also means the rest of the Memorial Day weekend is looking promising with mostly sunny skies both Sunday & Monday along with a northerly breeze to keep temperatures at least somewhat in check.

However, the longer range guidance for the 8-14 day period is still suggesting a more active period along with a trend to below normal temperatures.  So, stay tuned for updates.

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Dick Faurot

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