Warmer Next Few Days, Then Storm Chances Increase.

The spotty showers and light rain of earlier today have at least kept temperatures in check.  Notice the max/min temperatures across the state and those numbers are actually pretty close to normal for this time of year.  For Tulsa, the values so far today have been 82/64 and you can click here to see what the normal and extreme values are.

[img]

Also, as you can see on the rainfall map for today, the rains did not amount to much and have largely been confined to the more northern counties.  Those amounts just add to what has been a relatively wet month of May and it is normally our wettest month anyway.  Will have a more complete run down tomorrow for the end of the month and for the start of summer.

[img]

Although the showers today were for the most part on the light side, the next few days will also have at least a slight chance of a few spotty showers.  However, later in the week looks to have a more active pattern in place with the potential for heavier storms and locally heavier rainfall amounts.  More about that in a moment, but first for tonight we should have fair to partly cloudy overnight skies and near normal temperatures now that those showers have moved on eastward.  That means low to mid 60s along with a light southerly wind component.

Wednesday will have a little more sunshine than today so afternoon temperatures should reach the mid 80s along with a light SE wind and a very slight chance of a few showers or a rumble of thunder.  Thursday will be much the same but after that the weather pattern aloft will be more supportive of some disturbances moving over the state.  At the same time, a persistent southerly wind over the next few days will eventually bring our dew points back into the mid-upper 60s so more moisture will be available.  Bottom line is that showers and storms will become more widespread for the Fri/Sat time frame in particular.  This is not necessarily a favorable severe weather scenario as the dynamics are not overly impressive and the instability will be far short of what we had in recent days, but still advise keeping a close eye on the sky during that time frame.

The extra cloud cover and chances of showers/storms will also keep temperatures at least somewhat in check during the day as you can see on our forecast page.  Of more concern though is the potential for additional heavy rainfall and the 7 day QPF map suggests another couple of inches of rain which would be largely confined to the Fri/Sat time frame.  Keep in mind, this represents an areal average and some locations could easily receive far more while others receive less, but the potential is certainly there for some locally heavy amounts.

[img]

If the pattern aloft behaves as now indicated, then we should be stabilizing during the day Sunday and into the first part of next week.  However, the longer range guidance for the 8-14 day period is suggesting another active period along with a trend to somewhat below temperatures as we go deeper into June.

[img]

[img] 

So, stay tuned for updates.

Dick Faurot