Year to Date and a Look Ahead. - NewsOn6.com - Tulsa, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports - KOTV.com |

meme

me

Year to Date and a Look Ahead.

Posted: Updated:
rains rains
dn dn
qpf qpf
814t 814t
814p 814p

From a climatological standpoint, summer starts tomorrow despite what the calendar says.  Fortunately, we are going into the summer with plenty of moisture in the soil after the wettest April on record and a May that has been more than an inch wetter than normal; May is normally the wettest month of the year anyway.  In fact, the year to date rainfall totals have NE OK as the 4th wettest on record.

[img]

As for temperatures, this May is the first month of 2017 that will go down as cooler than normal; not by much but compared to how the rest of the year has gone that is noteworthy.  As you can see, you have to go back to Dec for the last time we had a month that was cooler than normal.  By the way, the year to date is now running as the third warmest on record, behind only 2012 and 2006..

[img]

As for the coming Summer, the general consensus of the various long range outlooks is for this Summer to average at or a little warmer than normal and at or a little wetter than normal.  As always, there are some wild cards involved that could change those expectations considerably, not the least of which is whether or not an El Nino develops in the Pacific Ocean this summer.  So far, the trends suggest neutral or very weak El Nino conditions and that is what the summer outlook is based on. 

Back to the short range and that is our storm chances and temperatures over the next few days.  Storms up in KS this afternoon may linger into the early night time hours and have at least some impact for our more northern counties.  As the night wears on, that activity will weaken but will leave us with partly cloudy skies and a possible repeat performance on Thursday.  Our winds will remain from a SE direction so temperatures will only drop into the mid-upper 60s for the next few nights.  Daytime highs will be close to 90 again tomorrow, but more cloud cover and better chances of showers/storms will knock down our daytime highs starting on Friday.

In fact, the pattern for the Fri/Sat time frame looks very unsettled with several waves of energy aloft moving across the state producing widespread showers/storms for Friday afternoon, through Friday night, and much of the day Saturday.  There may be some lingering showers into the morning hours of Sunday, but the pattern is currently expected to become more stable going into early next week.  Although a few isolated reports of severe wind/hail may occur, this pattern does not currently look to support anything more than just that, isolated damaging wind/hail occurrences.  However, the potential will exist for some locally heavy rainfall as you can see on the QPF valid through this coming Saturday which suggests an inch or more of rain will be possible.  Keep in mind, this is an areal average and some locations could receive much more and if it should fall in a short period of time, there could easily be some local drainage issues.

[img]

After that, a more amplified pattern aloft supports a cool front moving through and northerly winds at the surface and aloft which in turn will bring somewhat cooler air back our way.  As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will be relatively mild through early next week and the pattern looks to be more stable by then as well..

In fact, the more amplified pattern aloft may well persist well into the 8-14 day period which is suggesting a trend to somewhat below normal temperatures and more scattered showers/storms as we go deeper into June.  

[img]

[img]

So, stay tuned for updates.

Dick Faurot 

Special Features

Bus Stop Forecast

Wondering if you’ll need rain gear for you morning bus trip or afternoon ride home? Ask Alan!

Weather 101

Learn more about weather events that affect Oklahomans

Radars

See where weather is happening using our live interactive radars.

Live Traffic

Get the latest road conditions on Green Country roadways.

CBS Shows

Watch your favorite CBS shows for free online.

Live Radar

WARN Interactive

Featured on NewsOn6.com

  • Radars

    See where weather is happening using our live interactive radars.

  • Osage SkyNews 6

    When there is breaking news across the state Osage SkyNews 6 can be first on the scene.

  • Storm Zone

    Watch tornadoes tear across Oklahoma and learn how to stay safe!

Powered by Frankly
News On 6
303 N. Boston Ave.
Tulsa, OK 74103
Newson6.com is proud to provide Oklahomans with timely and relevant news and information, sharing the stories, pictures and loves of Oklahomans across our great state.
All content © Copyright 2000 - 2018 KOTV. Oklahoma Traveler™ is a registered trademark of Griffin Communications. All Rights Reserved.
For more information on this site, please read our Privacy Policy, and Terms of Service, and Ad Choices.