TULSA, Oklahoma - A southern stream system will be nearing the state over the next 48 hours with increasing thunderstorm chances for part of eastern Oklahoma. We’ll have a chance again today for a few showers and storms but most locations will again remain dry until later this afternoon and tonight when a few storms will persist from southern Oklahoma into the northeastern part of the state.  

Temperatures today have been adjusted upward a few degrees from yesterday’s advertisement with a sun-cloud mix along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph.

The model output regarding this arriving system has changed regarding the total output of precipitation. Consequently, we have lowered the chances Friday but have kept the pop at 50% for the day and evening and at 70% for Saturday. The start and stop times for this system will also be problematic due to the weak forcing, uncapped atmosphere and more than abundant low-level moisture residing across the area.  

Our best shot at this point would bring increasing chances into the area later this afternoon and tonight before another window opens Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Saturday morning seems to feature a decent shot of storms along with another chance by afternoon into the evening hours. 

A difference today in most data is to expand the chances longer Sunday. Instead of ending the pops early Sunday morning, we’ll need to keep another decent chance for precipitation Sunday midday to afternoon across the southern sections as the front slowly advances southward. But at this point, I’m still inclined to keep the pop rather low.

Monday into a few days next week the pattern will be transitioning to a northwest flow pattern which may bring several disturbances and storm complexes into the state from the northwest to southeast and may eventually allow a back-door front to move across part of northeast Oklahoma. 

The data was more aggressive with this solution yesterday (cooler for Monday) and now is slower (warmer for Monday)  This typical early summer pattern will persist for most of the week. Warm and humid weather will remain with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s, but we’ll still have some work to accomplish regarding the specifics for early next week.

Severe weather threats will remain very low with our incoming storm system for the weekend.  Our main threats will be pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall along with some potentially strong to severe wind gusts with the strongest storms. This means a few strong to severe storms will remain possible but significant and widespread severe weather is not expected.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone