TULSA, Oklahoma - Warm and muggy conditions will continue for the next few days before a front may take the edge off temps and humidity by the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.   The upper air flow may allow for a storm complex to brush part of northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas later tonight into Thursday morning with a slightly better signal for Thursday night into Friday morning.   We’re not going to change the pop significantly at this point but the data is slightly more robust for the late Thursday night period. 

Regardless of the storm chances, the temp and dew point factor will not decrease but may increase a notch or two with heat index values nearing or crossing 100 today, and possibly nearing advisory levels Friday and Saturday.  Any mature storms or storm complexes (MCS) will have the potential to produce severe weather. 

This morning we’re dealing with some leftover thunderstorms from last night.  These are moving ENE across part of central and northern Oklahoma and should continue to weaken during the next few hours.  A few of these cells will be severe along the Oklahoma-Kansas state line region. 

Our in-house model does keep these storms intact and brings them into the metro this morning while other NCEP runs basically have the cells weakening and dissipating shortly after sunrise.   We’ll need to keep a mention for a chance this morning but will keep the pop low.   Highs this afternoon will remain in the lower 90s with heat index numbers around 100.

Data yesterday and today continue to support a front nearing northern Oklahoma Sunday and slowly oozing southward by the evening hours before stalling Monday near or slightly south of the area.   This will bring a chance for showers and storms post frontal along with a noticeable reduction in temperature Sunday and Monday. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone