TULSA, Oklahoma - The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for most of eastern Oklahoma from noon until 7 p.m. today.

Heat index values nearing 105 to 110 for a few hours this afternoon with highs will be similar to yesterday with most folks topping out in the mid to upper 90s from the metro west and mid to lower 90s east.   South winds may stay slightly lower in speeds compared to yesterday but should offer some minor relief from this muggy-tropical air mass.

A few widely-spaced pulse-type storms will be possible today for a few folks but the coverage is expected to remain very low.   We’ll continue to make mentions of these low-end pops (10%) for the afternoon from 2 p.m. to about 7 p.m. or so.  

The rest of the weekend forecast remains basically unchanged from yesterday even though some differences now appear in some of the data.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure currently in control of the state is now moving (reshaping) to the west the next few days and should allow another small window of northwest flow for the region Friday through the weekend.   This means a few showers and storms will remain possible for the metro and surrounding region beginning Friday, topping out Saturday morning, and then also near or southwest of the metro Sunday. Some data are trending a little more bullish for pops Sunday morning near the metro but I’m staying low for now.

Temperatures this weekend may drop a few degrees with highs projected from the mid to upper 80s across northern Ok to the lower 90s across the south.   A weak boundary may also attempt to slide southward and may stall somewhere across northern Oklahoma either Friday or Saturday with east to northeast winds for a few locations along or north of Highway 412 this weekend.  But with limited upper air forcing and a limited coverage of storms, the boundary should stall across our northern sections before becoming diffuse late Saturday into Sunday.  

The air mass is not expected to change greatly and will keep the tropical to muggy weather across eastern OK this weekend.  The minor reduction in daytime highs will also support a minor reduction in the heat index. 

Most data continue to point us back to the ridge of high pressure aloft as the dominate feature next week.   The center of the ridge may move (or develop more) to the east or southeastern U.S. by late next week.  

The EURO is pushing the ridge slightly northward with a weakness (minor trough) developing under the back side by Wednesday bringing active weather into the region for the end of next week.   The GFS is more of a normal pattern for mid-July with the ridge reforming near the central plains and becoming somewhat elongated but still the dominate feature next week with little to no pops. 

Regardless, this should keep the big storm systems out and the heat and humidity remaining across eastern OK.   Once we start the drying out process (lack of rain aiding the “browning process” of vegetation) the temps will start climbing even more with a few folks nearing real-deal triple digits by late next week across part of eastern Oklahoma ( GFS) or just below ( EURO).

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone