Roller Coaster Temps Continue For Eastern Oklahoma
TULSA, Oklahoma - The roller coaster ride continues. And today will definitely heading down fast. Grab that jacket or coat. After highs in the 80s yesterday, some folks may stay in the 50s for the day.
Tough temp forecast coming up during the next 36 hours, more so Saturday. But today a shallow front has moved southward overnight. This means locations north of the stalled boundary will be staying in the upper 50s and lower 60s while locations to the southeast will be much warmer, possibly into the mid and upper 70s. Sparse moisture will attempt to ride up and over the front producing stratus clouds and maybe some drizzle in spots today. The odds for the drizzle part will remain very low. This boundary should lift northward and the chilly air mass should eventually scour out with warmer air returning Saturday and more so Sunday before another front arrives Sunday night into Monday morning. The key word here is “should”. Sometimes these shallow and chilly air masses get very difficult to dislodge. Some data, typically very good with these shallow fronts, are keeping the chilly air in place also for Saturday before the big warm up kicks into the gear Sunday before our next front. The bust potential for the Saturday forecast is moving up a notch!
This shallow front will stall quickly across southeastern Oklahoma once it encounters a varied and higher terrain. The cold air is simply not deep enough to clear the Kiamichi’s and the western areas of the Ozarks and the boundary should stall across part of Pushmataha or LeFlore counties. This is a very common occurrence with shallow fronts and can create a big temp difference across the region. The forecasting headache revolves around how quickly the chilly airmass will either retreat northward or mix-out during the day Saturday. For most of northeastern and east central Oklahoma, the chilly air will remain for today with mostly cloudy sky. The longer the stratus deck remains, the longer the chilly weather remains along and northwest of the surface boundary. There is a chance that locations to the northwest and near the metro will stay in the 50s for the entire day while the southeast may move into the lower 60s. Locations across far southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas could see an isolated storm or two but the odds will remain quite low. These low-end pops seem a little more likely in southwestern Arkansas.
Again, Saturday there will be some “bust potential” with the temp depending upon what happens later tonight. If our chilly air does not scour out, we may cooler than advertised for Saturday with highs in the 60s. As it stands now, we’re sticking with highs Saturday afternoon moving into the upper 70s or lower 80s along with south winds returning with sunshine. Again, we may end up punting on 3rd down later today regarding Saturday.
Sunday appears squarely back into the warm sector with highs in the mid-80s along with south and southwest winds before the front returns southward Sunday night into Monday morning. A few isolated showers or storms may be possible across far NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri during this period, but the chance will remain very low.
Most data continue to support the chilly weather remaining for a few days next week along with the approach of an upper level system from the west. This will result in some shower potential Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, the data differ on the best day for rain, but it’s probably going to be Wednesday or Thursday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.