Windy And Warm Across Green Country
TULSA, Oklahoma - The fire danger issues will increase again today as strong south winds will return in advance of a Tuesday night and Wednesday morning storm system that will bring a chance for a few showers and storms to the area.
As this system exits Wednesday morning, cooler air will arrive Thursday with north winds. Highs today will be in the lower 70s with windy conditions along with the increasing fire danger across the area by midday to afternoon.
The upper air flow will remain from the west to east allowing a developing closed-type low to move across the western U.S. across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The timing of the system may allow just enough low-level moisture to return across eastern Oklahoma for a few thunderstorms as the system moves across the state. Data suggest a surface low will develop and move across the central part of the state into western Arkansas by Wednesday morning.
Most precip should occur along the top-side of the surface low or possibly just to the east with northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas having the better chance for a few storms. Some data is slightly more northward with the surface low and would bring a better chance across northeastern Oklahoma and Southeastern Kansas. The threat for strong to severe storms seems very unlikely due to the lack of surface instability and limited moisture. Yet a few thunderstorms will be likely as the upper air core passes the region by early Wednesday morning. Regardless, the system will be exiting Wednesday morning to midday with a return of cooler air Wednesday into Thursday before the next upper wave quickly moves across the central plains Thursday night into Friday with little impact for the weekend as south winds are likely to remain both days. As stated last week, it appears the pattern will bring some more active weather into the state by the early part of December.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.