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Colder Temperatures, Fire Danger Continue In Oklahoma

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Colder temperatures will prevail in Eastern Oklahoma over the next few days - or, as we like to say, it's big coat weather.

Mid to upper level flow will remain highly meridional for the next few days with amplification of the positive PNA pattern across the northern hemisphere. The ridge in the west will prolong with warm and dry weather for the fire-ravaged areas of California while the trough in the east will keep the Midwest and Ohio Valley locations in the deep freeze.  

The positioning of the southern and central plains will be close enough for the leading edge of the colder air mass to reside across the region for the next few days. While the overall upper pattern will remain consistent, the surface features will change enough by the 2nd half of the weekend allowing a minor warm-up Sunday with west and southwest surface winds.  

This may get us into the upper 50s near the lower 60s Sunday. Morning lows will be near and below freezing now through Saturday morning with many locations experiencing the mid-20s tomorrow and Friday morning. Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid-50s this afternoon, yet another surface front will nearly back-door the area tonight bringing even colder and drier air into the state.  

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Thursday afternoon highs will probably stay in the upper 30s northern OK and a few lower 40s to the south with highs in the upper 40s both Friday and Saturday.  Just like yesterday morning, the cloud deck Thursday morning may support a few flurries or sleet pellets falling from the mid-level deck to the surface before the dry air wins the day. 

But the positing of these features, if they occur at all, should be west of our area. The upper air flow will bring another clipper type disturbance into the state early next week, but the odds of any eventual precipitation will remain low and out of the forecast. 

The “pattern” may change some during the next 10 days and could become more active in the southern stream.  

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The continuation of the drought combined with the dormant and dry season supports the daily mention of fire danger issues. Single digit surface dew points are likely to arrive tomorrow afternoon across northern OK and southern Kansas yielding afternoon humidity in the mid to upper 20% range. These fire danger issues will not cease this winter, yet may give way to waning and waxing due to environmental conditions.  

Later today and more so Thursday the wind speeds will be increasing from the northwest and would act to enhance the fire spread conditions.  While exact Red Flag warning criteria is not likely to be met, the fire danger will be increasing.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone


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