We’re tracking two systems for the next seven days, including a strong arctic front that may brush far northern OK Sunday night into Monday morning.  Another storm system will near the state Tuesday with a chance of showers or storms across eastern OK.  Another wild ride for temps will be likely for the next few days with this morning’s readings dropping into the teens and lower 20s across NE OK.  Afternoon highs will be in the mid-40s north and lower 50s south with a sun-cloud mix and south winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Our next system will be moving across part of the state later tomorrow night into Sunday morning but the odds will remain low for any measurable precip across the area.  Low-level moisture is attempting to return later this afternoon and evening but I just don’t think we’ll have time to moisten up before the forcing arrives Saturday afternoon and evening.  The best chance for any precip will more than likely remain away from our immediate area.  Southeastern OK will have the best chance for a few showers with NE TX into Louisiana in a better position to pick up rainfall. 

We’ve been attempting to peg the arctic air mass and the impact, if any, on the state for the last week. The data has been extremely inconsistent with wild swings from day to day regarding the trajectory and depth of the shallow air mass that will move across Oklahoma Sunday.  EURO and GFS data have trended much warmer, unusually warmer for this pattern, regarding Sunday with some data suggesting 60 degrees across northern OK! 

But the 12KNAM, usually a very good model for shallow air masses continues to suggest this leading edge of colder air will arrive into southeastern Kansas Sunday morning to midday and should move into northern OK Sunday midday into the evening.  The depth of the air will hold the key to how long this cold air will remain with shallow air masses having the tendency to mix-out quickly with pressure falls expected to occur to the west shortly after passage. 

Basically, this means I’m sticking with Sunday afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s with falling temps by afternoon and evening into the 20s along with strong north winds. Any precip should be confined to areas well north, including the Kansas City metro Sunday afternoon and evening southward into part of southeastern Kansas and SW Missouri. 

As south winds return Monday morning the air mass will quickly modify and highs will rebound into the 50s by the afternoon before our next system rapidly moves across the state and southern plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The potential will remain for warmer weather Tuesday morning before temps drop into the upper 30s Tuesday afternoon and into the mid-20s by late evening. 

Precip chances will appear near and east of the metro Tuesday morning to midday with far eastern OK continuing to have the better chance. If the EURO is correct, there will be thunderstorms Tuesday morning near or east of the metro.  But the thermal structure may be too warm in this model.  We’ll update as we draw near the time and space. I’m concerned that once again moisture will be limited in the return flow and the better chance will be slightly east of the metro.  At this point, our Tuesday pops will remain at 30 percent.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone