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Chilly With Wintry Precip Possible Tuesday Across Oklahoma

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TULSA, Oklahoma -

Our next system will be quickly moving into the southern plains Tuesday with a chance for some rain or light drizzle that may transition to some freezing rain or sleet in a few spots.  The system will be exiting quickly late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with improving conditions for the rest of the week.  Another system will be nearing the state for the second half of the weekend.  Temps will be very cold this morning with many locations in the teens to lower 20s along with wind chills in the single digits.  Afternoon highs will be difficult to peg with the chance of the shallow air lasting longer than anticipated for the day.  But with some sunshine and a return of south winds today, we’ll buy into the warmer solutions and take most of the temps in the 40s by the afternoon.  North winds will return tonight as a broad surface low takes a southern route and brings the chilly weather back across the state into Tuesday.

WARN Interactive Radar

Several northern stream waves will influence our weather for the next 7 days including a disturbance nearing the state later tonight into Tuesday.  This should induce some overrunning precip sometime Tuesday before ending later Tuesday night or pre-dawn Wednesday.  BufKit profiles suggest a drizzle-rain-winter mix will be possible across part of the area.  A very low chance of light drizzle will develop Tuesday morning with temps below freezing across northern Oklahoma.  A better chance will be by Tuesday afternoon when some light showers or drizzle may approach northern Oklahoma while some pockets of moderate rainfall will approach southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas, The profile should present temps above freezing during this period but may drop back into a wintry mix profile around 6 pm Tuesday to midnight or shortly afterwards pre-dawn Wednesday.  NAM data, usually very good in these patterns, is shifting most precip south of the metro, while the GFS continues to hold some precip northward, including the metro.  We’ll continue to keep the mention for the entire region due to the possibility of some light wintry mix and minor travel issues that could develop Tuesday evening.  A winter weather advisory may be required for part of the area Tuesday late due to this potential.  

Weather Alerts

This system will exit quickly and should be well east of the state Wednesday morning.  A relative warm-up will commence Thursday into Friday with 50s and 60s back across the state.   The weekend will feature another system nearing with differences in the data regarding the surface frontal intrusion and the on-set of some precip chances.  EURO is faster bringing colder air into the state Saturday while the GFS holds this cold air back until Sunday.  We’ll offer a compromise until the data converges.  Some precip will be likely this weekend but until confidence arrives on the exact outcome, we’ll continue with the current forecast which includes a 30 percent chance Saturday and a low mention Sunday.  Changes will be expected with the weekend forecast.  Changes could even be possible today with the afternoon temps! Check back often. 

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