TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re back on the train for another warm-up into midweek before another front moves across the area sometime Thursday with falling temps and the potential for some precip Thursday into Friday morning.   After staying cold Friday, we’ll be back for another warming trend into the weekend with improving conditions. 

The weekend was eventful for drivers in many locations resulting in deceptive icing conditions at times.  The metro seemed to have more issues Saturday morning through midday while east central and southeastern Oklahoma ended up with slick streets late Saturday evening into Sunday morning.   

This morning our temps are quite cold with mostly clear sky and light winds allowing temps to drop into the teens and lower 20s.   Wind chills will be in the single digits to lower teens this morning.  Afternoon highs should move into the mid to upper 40s with sunshine.  Winds will remain from the northeast early and eventually from the southeast later this evening.  We have a chance to be cooler than advertised for Tuesday but the influence of some clouds could hamper the temps tomorrow.  We’re sticking with highs in the lower 50s at this point.  Some tweaks will be possible later today as new data arrive.  The warm-up will become more noticeable Wednesday into Thursday with much warmer air spreading across the Mexican Plateau into the southwestern U.S., including Oklahoma.  Some folks will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The upper pattern gets us set for another surge of shallow arctic air Thursday with overrunning precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday resulting in a low chance for freezing rain and sleet.  The pattern will bring a medium to long wave trough across the plains Wednesday into Thursday with a low developing at the base of the trough, across the southwestern U.S.   As the surface front slides southward, showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible.   At this point, Thursday seems to be the best time period for this scenario. 

The southwestern low will weaken as it ejects eastward Thursday into Friday but may be strong enough to bring moisture up and over the shallow dome of cold air resulting in a narrow band of freezing precip.   The actual model output will continue to change regarding the specific output, but the pattern recognitions encourages us to keep the mention in the forecast.  The model output has changed several times over the past 4 to 6 runs for this part of the forecast and will continue to do so for another day before bringing a higher confidence to our forecast.  If one takes the true output this morning, our window for any significant freezing precip is very low, if not zero at this point.   But as mentioned above, the pattern suggests we should not rule out this possibility.

The system would quickly exit Friday morning with improving weather Friday midday into the weekend with another warming trend likely into Sunday.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.