TULSA, Oklahoma - A few small showers and mist will be underway for the next hour or so across extreme southeastern Oklahoma as warm air continues to spread across the southern plains and more so, southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  Clouds will stick around for the first half of the day but this activity will quickly move eastward leaving warm weather in its wake for the next two days.  Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with Thursday afternoon readings into the mid-70s.  Another strong front will move across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning with a chance for some showers and colder air Friday into part of Saturday before moderating Sunday into Monday.  Another stout looking system will be nearing the state Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with additional precip chances. 

The pattern is changing and will bring several chances of precip into the state through next week.  The exact model output regarding late Thursday night into Friday has changed slightly regarding the strength of the air mass.  Consequently, we have made some minor adjustments to the temperature forecast for this period.  Regardless, after the warm weather today and Thursday, its back to cold weather Friday into Saturday though midday.

The upper air flow features a closed low off the coast near Baja in the southern stream at the base of a long to medium wave that in the northern stream.  This closed low is forecast to weaken-shear as it becomes absorbed in the flow, yet will continue to provide enough lift in the atmosphere for the precip chances Friday. 

The precipitation forecast remains rather robust for the southern sections of the state for this initial front but northern Oklahoma may be on the slim side for any decent rainfall.  The chance remains for the metro but the better output regarding rain will remain slightly south of the area late Thursday night into early Friday morning. 

Saturday morning through midday some rain will be possible across the southern sections of the state with a slight chance for northern Oklahoma.   The data continues to differ on some important features for this period, but we’ll need to keep a chance in the forecast.

Temps Saturday morning will start in the upper 20s north and 30s south.  We’ll need to watch the precip output across southern Oklahoma for the possibility of some light wintry mid but the odds will remain very low and out of the forecast for now. 

South winds will quickly return Sunday as the next main upper level wave will approach the area early next week.   In response a surface area of low pressure will develop across the state Monday and move eastward Tuesday with another surface frontal passage.   Cooler air is possible Tuesday into Wednesday with some precip nearby.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.