The sunshine has been welcome in the past couple of days after nearly a week of ice, flooding and downright gloomy weather. The rain was incredibly welcome considering our drought, but it was too much of a good thing in areas east of Tulsa where major river flooding occurred along the Illinois River. By Thursday, we’ll know the full impacts of the rainfall on the current drought when the new Monitor is released. In the meantime, we’re focused on a two-day rainy spell for Green Country.

                While rainfall isn’t exactly welcome news at this point, it won’t be nearly as heavy or enduring as our last storm system. It’ll come in two parts. The first bout of rainfall will begin midday Tuesday as widespread showers expand into eastern Oklahoma from the south. While Tuesday morning will be largely dry, the afternoon and evening are going to be soggy. Aside from some lingering drizzle, this first wave should wrap up by mid-evening. Just about everyone is expected to see a light soaking in Green Country. You can see the timeline below.

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                The next wave of rain will arrive Wednesday midday into the afternoon. There is a little less confidence in who sees the rain Wednesday, but the chance of thunderstorms is also with us that day as a cold front arrives. The main area of severe weather will be confined to the warm front along the Red River, but a few heavy to locally severe ones could break out along or even south of the actual frontal boundary moving in from the northwest that afternoon or early evening. The main concern will be that any heavy downpours could create localized flooding due to our saturated soils. Fortunately, the amounts of rain will likely be under an inch for most of us the next two days.

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                March begins Thursday and it may kick off like a lion thanks to the gusty winds over 30 mph developing behind the cold front. Fortunately, that should come with drier and sunny weather. In fact, the end of the week will bring another taste of spring. We could see temperatures as warm as 70°!

                Spring isn’t fully here yet though. Beyond another storm system arriving in about a week, a cooler pattern settles back into the area. While I’m not seeing any major signal for snow, we can’t rule out at least one more bout of wintry weather before we transition out of the cold season. If we do see any of it, the first full week in March might be our best bet.  As you see below, that time frame is poised to be colder here in the nation’s midsection.

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                For more weather updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page.