TULSA, Oklahoma - More sunshine and highs in the upper 50s will be expected today after another cold start.   But we’re tracking a pattern change that will occur later this week bringing warmer weather back to the state, along with a chance for a few spring-like thunderstorms near us into early next week.   While many questions remain concerning the quality (depth) of low level moisture, the pattern and anticipated dynamics could produce severe weather across part of the plains.  Yet this pattern could also veer most of the moisture slightly east of the state during the early periods leaving most of the area dry!  We’re several days away from this system but the first impact will be warmer weather arriving Wednesday afternoon into the weekend. 

Another chilly morning is underway across northeastern Oklahoma with many locations in the 20s and 30s.  We’ll be under the influence of a cool northwest flow aloft today with a surface ridge of high pressure ridge building down into the state this afternoon and tonight.  Highs this afternoon should remain near yesterday’s readings with many locations in the mid to upper 50s along with sunshine and north winds.  The surface ridge will bring cold temps late tonight into Wednesday morning, including the potential for some patchy frost, back to northeastern Oklahoma Wednesday morning.   By the afternoon the ridge is moving eastward as our next upper level trough begins to influence the west coast.  This will cause our pressure to drop and south winds will return Wednesday into Thursday allowing the warmer weather to arrive across the southern plains.  Many locations will hit the lower to mid-70s Thursday and near 80 Friday as our next set of storm chances will begin to unfold across extreme eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. 

The data has been suggesting the possibility of shoving the deeper low-level moisture slightly eastward Friday with a fast frontal intrusion Saturday morning.  This would limit our chances for any thunderstorm activity to the extreme eastern sections of the area sometime Friday and keeping Saturday precip free and into the 60s.    But as the main trough nears, the southeasterly surface flow would increase and storm chances may slightly improve Sunday as the trough ejects into the central plains and brings another surface front across the state Monday morning.   Despite the strong trough in the plains, our actual chances for showers and storms will remain fairly low at this point. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.