TULSA, Oklahoma - After this morning, we’re moving into a warmer weather pattern with south winds and highs eventually hitting the 70s Thursday into Friday.  There is a chance for a few lower 80s late Friday afternoon behind a dry line.   We’re also sliding into a possible active pattern with a few mentions for showers or storms, but the overall chances will continue to remain low for our immediate area.  Better locations will be across far eastern Oklahoma or western Arkansas Friday.   Temps will start in the 20s this morning with some patchy frost.  Daytime highs will be in the lower or mid-60s with south winds near 10 to 15 mph.

A strong upper level trough will eventually be influencing the southern and central plains but will be located near or west of the California coast for the next 36 hours.  The upper flow will be transitioning from the northwest to the southwest over the next 48 hours and will bring the first of several waves around the base of the trough and over part of the plains soon.   The first wave will arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning with a few shower or storm chances but the higher probability will remain to our east.  

The strong dynamics with this system may shove the deeper and better low-level moisture east of the area Friday morning into the afternoon.  While a few showers or storms may develop near the metro, the veering profile would support higher chances to our east.   Consequently, the SPC has issued a slight risk of severe storms for much of the Arkansas as this first wave encounters the area Friday.

A surface dry line will rapidly move eastward Friday midday and could cross the metro before the end of peak incoming solar radiation.   This could allow Friday afternoon temps to reach the lower 80s if we experience the dry air before the surface front catches up and clears the area Friday late.   At this point, I have 80 for the Friday high along with southwest winds for most of the day. 

Later Friday night, northwest winds will arrive bringing a short-lived stable air mass Saturday to the state with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. 

 Later Saturday night as the main upper level trough draws closer to the Rockies, the south winds will return as pressure falls quickly in the Lee of the Rockies.  This will attempt to rapidly bring low level moisture back into the state ahead of the main forcing that will be arriving Sunday night into Monday morning.  

Again, the availability of quality (deep) low level moisture will be the question regarding the potential of thunderstorm coverage and intensity.   GFS data has trended faster with this arrival and breaks out some elevated showers and storms Saturday evening across the area.   The slower EURO is probably the way to go and holds the pops until early Sunday morning trough the day.  At this point, I have a 30% pop for the Sunday period before the trough ejects across the central plains and brings another front across the area Monday morning. We’ll be going through some pop placement updates for the next day or two as we attempt to pin-down the exact timing.  The chances will continue to be rather low for most locations. 

Monday through Wednesday appears uneventful for next week before another trough may bring a few storms into the state later next week for the stay at home spring breakers.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.