TULSA, Oklahoma - A pattern change will occur this week.  Much warmer weather will arrive with highs reaching the mid-70s Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday into Friday before our next system arrives Friday with a chance for a few storms across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  A modest cool down will occur Saturday yet with pleasant weather for the weekend.

The exceptionally cold weather we experienced this weekend is slowly eroding yet morning lows will start once again in the 30s and 40s across northeastern Oklahoma.  A weak surface boundary will get shoved across the state today as a mid-level wave quickly moves across the central plains.  The atmosphere is somewhat dry but may support a few spotty showers or sprinkles across part of the area today.  I’ll keep the 10% from our previous forecast for part of the day with partly cloudy with some sun and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  A fairly nice day ahead. 

Weather behind the departing wave looks good (after today) for a few days with sunshine and improving temps.  We’ll be warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s today and the mid-60s Tuesday before seeing those 70s and 80s for the middle of the week. Quite a change from the weekend!

Wednesday into Thursday a large and broad upper trough will establish across the western U.S., mainly across the inter mountain region into the PAC northwest.  A surface area of low pressure will deepen to our northwest and allow very strong south winds developing Wednesday into Thursday.  We may be near or slightly below advisory levels by Thursday for part of the state. 

Thursday into Friday a dry line is likely to establish across far western Oklahoma with the surface low centering across the central plains as a lead impulse rounds the basal portion of the trough and ejects into the central plains.  This would normal crank up a few storms off the dry line to the west, but current data support a strong capping inversion in place across the state that would limit or more than likely prohibit storms from forming.  I will not include a pop for the Thursday period.

Friday morning the upper trough is ejecting into the central plains while a surface cold front will quickly sweep across northwestern Oklahoma into the eastern third of the state by midday.  This will overtake the dry line Friday morning to afternoon and attempt to fire up a few storms across eastern Oklahoma Friday midday to afternoon.  The timing of the impulse in the data suggest the higher chances will remain slightly east of the metro with the best chance across highway 69 eastward into western Arkansas.  A few strong to severe storms will be possible yet the deeper moisture could once again quickly advance into the state line region. 

Strong northwest winds behind the boundary will bring much drier air into the area that will reside across eastern Oklahoma this weekend with clear sky and cool weather this weekend.  It’s possible we could have another minor freeze Sunday morning in some valley locations.  The next front would zip across the area next Tuesday but low level moisture may not have time to recover into the area.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.