TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re in the running for another storm complex that may move across part of northern Oklahoma later tonight into Wednesday morning before the mid-level ridge nudges northward for the end of the week. The ridge flattens again this weekend with a possible cold front that will move across the state Saturday with some reduction in temps and humidity Sunday into a few days into next week.  Most data support the weekend front passing through the region with no precipitation.  This could change, but as of now we’ll bring the weekend front across the state dry.  

A wild card this morning will be some thunderstorm activity currently across the northwestern part of the state moving east.  Most, it not all short term hi-res data support his activity weakening and not surviving across the I-35 corridor this morning.   Stranger things have happened.  It appears a convectively induced vort is helping to drive this activity which has been severe overnight.  I’ll trust the data and ignore my gut at this point.  But in this environment, it’s possible we’ll punt on 3rd down and add some short-term storm chances this morning until this small complex drops out.   Later today and tonight more storms will be likely to our west before moving across part of northeastern and eastern Oklahoma late tonight and pre-dawn Wednesday.   Some severe weather will be possible.  But for most of the day, our weather will remain quite warm and humid today with south winds keeping low level moisture streaming into northeastern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.  Highs will remain in the lower to mid-90s with THI values in the upper 90s.

The past few days we’ve been influenced by a mid-level ridge of high pressure keeping the major storm systems away from the region.  The ridge is beginning to flatten allowing a west to northwest pattern to brush the central plains including southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  A few storms should develop later this afternoon out of southeast Colorado or western Kansas and will be capable of very large hail.  As the storms move east and eventually southeast, they’ll more than likely develop a complex of storms ( MCS) and move across northwest Oklahoma into north central or northeast Oklahoma late tonight into pre-dawn Wednesday.  This expected storm complex will can produce damaging straight-line winds from 60 to 75 mph along with very heavy rainfall and some hail before gradually weakening with time and space early Wednesday morning.  It’s impossible to know the eastward extent of the possible severe weather threats with exact confidence yet most guidance points toward the complex slowly weakening as it enters northeastern Oklahoma Wednesday morning.  We will encourage locations from Tulsa south to McAlester and then to the west to be prepared for this possible severe weather complex later tonight into early Wednesday morning.  The signal will also remain late Wednesday night into Thursday morning for another small thunderstorm complex to develop to our west and brush our area.  But the ridge may be expanding slightly northward during this exact time which may keep the complex right along the Highway 412 corridor region or along the Oklahoma-Kansas state line early Thursday morning before gradually move northeast as the ridge nudges northward. 

Temps will remain quite warm with highs in the lower to mid-90s during the next few days.  There is a small chance that highs will be nearing 100 Friday before drooping into the lower 90s or upper 80s as the weekend front passes the area Saturday.  We may be too green to hit the 100 mark, but we’ve had this temp on the map for a few days and I’ll let it ride for now.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.