TULSA, Oklahoma - The pattern will continue to change bringing active weather into the region by the middle of the week as ridging will occur across the southeastern and southwestern U.S.  This will allow stronger winds aloft to migrate southward along with at least one, possibly two upper level troughs that will influence our area.  The big and deep slug of tropical moisture advertised last week is expected to remain slightly south and southwest of our area through the period yet moisture from the pacific storm Carlotta may be funneled northward along the slowly advancing central plains front during the next few days.  And we have no lack of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico already in place.  We’re in a holding pattern for most of today and tomorrow before the first trough approaches with increasing rain and storm chances for our area by the middle of the week.  Highs today will move back into the lower 90s along with THI values in the upper 90s near 100 with south winds and partly cloudy conditions.  Any isolated showers or storms will remain across far southeastern Oklahoma with a few also located across the far western part of the state today.

The first trough is visible this morning across the pacific northwest on the vapor imagery and will be moving closer to the central plains by Wednesday.  A surface front will move southward into at least central Kansas and possibly northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday before possibly crossing the metro Thursday morning through midday.  If the real front stalls north, we anticipate at least an outflow boundary to move across the area.  Regardless, our chance for a few storms tomorrow will remain low, but chances will increase Wednesday into Thursday as these features draw closer to the state.  The trough will move away from the area Thursday into Friday but another system may be arriving for part of the weekend.  The data is inconsistent for this period into the weekend but may require some big changes to the forecast in subsequent updates.   The GFS looks reasonable with lifting the boundary (outflow) northward Friday into Saturday bringing a slight chance of storms with most of the weekend dry and warm.  The EURO keeps the boundary closer to the northern part of the state and brings at least one and possibly two small short waves across the area with storms for portions of the weekend.  Our forecast is siding more with the GFS for now, but some changes are possible.  Stay tuned!

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