TULSA, Oklahoma - No major changes are likely for the forecast today and tomorrow with a continued mention for some scattered showers or thunderstorms across part of the area.  The disturbance that moved across the state yesterday is now across northwestern Oklahoma moving away from us but additional weak lift is possible today and should trigger a few scattered showers or storms for portions of eastern Oklahoma.  The coverage should be slightly less today compared to yesterday.  The daytime highs should drive up a notch with THI values nearing 100 to 103.  The temps and humidity will remain the big story for the middle to end of the week with some locations across east central and southeastern Oklahoma nearing Heat Advisory criteria (105-109).  The actual daytime highs should also climb a few degrees with many spots reaching the upper 90s soon and possibly 100 in a few spots this weekend into early next week.  For the weather gurus in the crowd, right or wrong we’ve basically discounted the GFS regarding precip for the Friday period.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain near and north of the state today but will still offer a few areas of scattered showers and storms through Wednesday as weak lift moves under the ridge across north Texas into southern Oklahoma.   Please remember that a few of the storms later this afternoon could produce wet micro bursts upon collapsing with the low-end potential for some damaging winds in a few spots but the odds for this will remain very low if not closer to zero.

The GFS continues to offer a few additional storm chances Thursday and Friday while the EURO counterpart keeps the ridge stronger and the precip chances out of the forecast after tomorrow.  We have elected to stick with the EURo at this point and will limit the precip chances to today and tomorrow as the mid-level ridge currently centered to our northeast will expand southward into the state Thursday night into Friday.  This should limit the pops and crank up the heat. 

The data differ later this weekend into early next week with a trough nearing the western U.S. that could place another boundary nearing northwestern OK sometime early next week.    Again, we’ve sided with the EURO brethren at this point.

Real world temps have been outperforming model data for the past two weeks outside of any convective influence.  We hit 96 yesterday afternoon.   I’m going to raise a few of our daytime highs to meet some fuzzy math and see how it shakes out for the next few days. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.