TULSA, Oklahoma - The warming trend will continue with the biggest jump expected in the overnight and morning low category as low-level moisture (higher dew points) return across eastern Oklahoma this Sunday into Monday.  Relatively low humidity will once again be featured today with daytime highs in most locations around the 93 to 96 range today and into the weekend.   A slightly increasing fire danger will unfold today by the afternoon with the low humidity and slightly increasing south winds speeds from 10 to 22 mph.

The pattern is expected to go through another change next week allowing another northwest flow to influence the plains.  This pattern will bring changes again to the state with a few storm chances and at least one front impacting the region.  The net temp impact will be going down again by the middle to end of next week.  But in the short term, we’re slowly on our way up.  Just like the stock market:  one day its up and the next its down!

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is expanding eastward now and will influence the state with increasing heights through most of the weekend.  The center of this ridge never truly finds itself over the state, but it should be strong enough to keep most of the weekend trough at bay.   This short wave will advance across the inter mountain region today into this weekend with increasing storm chances off the front range of the Rockies into the central plains.  A few straggling thunderstorms could find their way into the state late tonight and Saturday morning also possible Sunday morning, but we would anticipate this activity to remain slightly north or northwest of our immediate area of concern.  My only hesitation continues to be Sunday morning when the tail end of the trough flattens the ridge and may spring a morning surprise with a few showers nearby. 

Monday into Tuesday the ridge will retrograde more to the west as the northern stream begins migrating southward.  A surface front will develop and move near the state Tuesday with southwest surface winds across most of southern and eastern Oklahoma in advance of the boundary.  This pattern typically brings hot weather along the boundary and we’re nudging the temps to near 100 Tuesday.  But the data this morning is faster with the boundary and we’ll need to make some adjustments downward for the Tuesday period.  The EURO is much faster compared to the GFS but we’ll stick with a fuzzy math blend for another day or two before making any major changes.  

By Tuesday afternoon and evening the front will move southward with a few showers or storms developing into Wednesday.  The net result will be temps dropping again to near or below the seasonal averages for the end of next week.  As I have stated here many times over the past few weeks, this pattern is typically an early June pattern and not an early August deal. 

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.