TULSA, Oklahoma - The upper air pattern will keep the chances for showers and storms near the region again today and tonight before the focus will shift more southward into the Red River Valley for the latter half of the week.  A complex of storms will be likely this morning to our west and south and part of this system may clip the metro for a few hours by midday. 

The higher chances will remain to the south and west of the area.  Severe weather is not expected across northeast Oklahoma although a few strong wind gusts will be possible along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.  The more favorable spot for severe storms will remain south or west.  Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be likely this morning through midday from northwestern Oklahoma into central and south-central sections of the state where some localized heavy rainfall could result in some flooding. 

Again, this probably stays slightly west of our immediate areas of concern.

Highs this afternoon are expected to stay in the mid to upper 80s with a relatively light wind from the southwest or west.

The ridge is well east of the state and is bringing hot conditions to the western half of the nation while a northwest flow is bringing periodic disturbances out of the Rockies into the southern plains.   The data is a little more uncertain regarding Thursday morning into Friday, but the general thinking is that higher chances will remain to the south of our area.  Only the EURO brings another big rain near the metro tomorrow morning.  Our forecast will only hold low chances for Thursday morning and will keep Friday and most of Saturday precip free.  Temps will be a little warmer during this stretch but will be pleasant with morning lows near 70 and highs near 90 to 94.

This weekend a cut-off low will develop on the western flank of an elongated trough that will be positioned across the Midwest.  This feature will drift northward Sunday through Tuesday impacting portions of Oklahoma with a good chance of showers and storms.  The eastern part of the state will be on the eastern fringe of the low, but this morning’s data suggest higher pops Sunday through Tuesday even for the eastern third of the state. 

We’ll continue to slowly trend these rain chances higher.  It’s worth noting the Precipitable water values will remain high during this period and localized heavy rainfall or some flooding will be increasing. 

As always, thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.