Cold And Sunny Tuesday Across Eastern Oklahoma

<p>Today will be a beautiful looking day with plenty of sunshine as a surface ridge of high pressure near northeastern Oklahoma will keep our temps on the chilly side.&nbsp;</p>

Tuesday, November 20th 2018, 3:58 am



Today will be a beautiful looking day with plenty of sunshine as a surface ridge of high pressure near northeastern Oklahoma will keep our temps on the chilly side.  Temps this morning will start in the upper 20s and lower 30s with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  The winds will be light and variable as the surface ridge slowly migrates across northern Oklahoma before exiting to the east later this afternoon and evening.  This will bring pleasant weather into the state Wednesday as south winds return in the 10 to 15 mph range and temps continue to slowly increase along with a few clouds and a sunshine mix.

Our weather scenario for Thanksgiving and Black Friday hasn’t change much from yesterday morning.

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Thanksgiving Day should feature morning lows in the in the mid to upper 30s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s with increasing clouds by late afternoon and evening as the next upper level wave quickly approaches from the northwest.  This should bring some spotty showers into eastern Oklahoma Friday morning through midday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.  The EURO is more robust with the moisture return and would offer a higher chance for Friday rain across a larger portion for the eastern half of the state while the GFS has most of the deeper moisture shunted to the east.   Regardless of the exact model, the rain chances will remain for Friday.  The EURO is slightly cooler. 

Interactive Radar

Saturday appears to be a transition day as a strong looking upper level system will drop out of the Rockies into the plains Sunday into Monday.   At this point, we’re swinging at curve balls for the next day or two until the models lock unto a more consistent solution.  This system will eventually cause a strong surface low to develop and bring gusty winds across the plains Sunday into Monday with another strong cold front moving across the state.  This part of the forecast looks fairly solid.  We also have a slight mention for some precipitation across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas for Sunday.  This is where the curve balls keep coming. 

The data has been highly inconsistent regarding the placement of the surface low and some differences in the placement and strength of the upper level low.  With each run, the surface low track has changed and so has the placement and type of precip for Sunday.  The latest EURO run as the 992MB low near Kansas City Sunday morning while the GFS has the low in southern Tulsa county.  The EURO would keep almost all precip will north of our area while the latest GFS would bring some wintry weather into far northern Oklahoma.  This is one example of the two latest runs from these two models.  The prior runs for the same two models, or course, are different with the timing and position of the surface low.  This is normal and even expected this time of year.  What does this mean for the forecast?  We’ll buy into the colder air moving southward during the day Sunday, but not go whole hog with any precip scenarios at this moment.  We’ll need to have a placeholder precip chance for Sunday and I’ll more than likely stay with a middle ground pop for this forecast cycle.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

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