Severe Threats And Freezing Rain: Alan Crone's Weather Blog

This is one of the more interesting setups we’ve had in a while with a chance of severe storms south and freezing rain north. A shallow arctic air mass remains across northeastern OK this morning with temperatures near or slightly below freezing across far northern OK and southern Kansas.

The true front is located across southeastern OK, near the Kiamichis’s to the foothills of the Ozarks, with much warmer air along and south of this boundary. The front once again sloshed southward last night but mostly remains in place this morning to our south. A lead impulse has already created some showers this morning. This activity moved across the top side of the front and is acting to keep this boundary currently across far southeastern OK.

More northward, light freezing drizzle and mist will be possible for locations north of the Tulsa metro this morning for a few hours where a winter weather (travel) advisory will remain for the morning. The threat of significant icing is low this morning, but even light amounts could make travel hazardous on elevated surfaces. Later this evening into overnight, much of these same areas could experience additional freezing rain as the main storm system moves across the region.

This could impact the Tulsa metro overnight. Winter weather advisories or additional winter products will more than likely be required for part of northern OK and southern Kansas for this scenario tonight through pre-dawn Thursday. Not only bridges and overpasses, but other roadways could be impacted by the freezing rain.

Later this morning the warm front will attempt to move slightly northward as the arctic air attempts to slowly mix out to out south. Once again, much warmer air will slowly invade the southeastern and east-central portions of the state with temperatures possibly climbing into the upper 60s and lower to mid-70s across far southeastern OK into northeast Texas. Locations near Tulsa may remain in the upper 30s near 40. Just like yesterday, its possible we’ll see afternoon temps ranging from the 30s north to the 60s or 70s across far southeastern OK.

By early afternoon, another impulse may develop showers and storms across part of south central OK. These would attempt to move northeast and could pose a limited severe weather threat. More than likely, these storms would be slightly elevated and mostly north of the surface boundary. 

By late tonight, the main storm system will be gaining momentum and will rapidly approach the central OK region. Another cold front will sweep southeast and intercept the deeper moisture and warmer air to our south helping to create thunderstorms.

A few severe supercells will initially be possible tonight across the southern sections before storms should quickly form a line or at least two linear segments and race east to southeast. The wind profile and other severe weather parameters would support all modes of severe weather, including a slight chance of tornadoes across southeastern OK. Most of the severe weather threats will be confined to damaging winds and hail, but we can’t rule out a tornado warning. The more favorable location for surface based severe storms (in our immediate area) will be along or south of the I-40 corridor and mostly across southeastern to far east central OK southward to the Red River.

The main window for strong to severe storms tonight will be ending around 2am to 4am Thursday morning. Again, as the severe weather is mostly south later tonight, some freezing rain will be possible across northern OK into southern Kansas before the colder air finally sweeps the moisture out of the region early Thursday morning. This freezing rain could impact the Tulsa metro for a few hours, pre-dawn Thursday.

Temps will fall from the 30s pre-dawn Thursday into the lower 30s and upper to mid-20s by afternoon with blustery northwest winds from 20 to 30 mph. Wind chill values will drop into the single digits by late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Temps will continue to drop into the teens Friday morning with highs in the lower 30 by afternoon along with sunshine and light north winds.

Another system will near the state early next week with more rain and thunder chances followed by yet another cold front moving across the state. At this point, Saturday morning should start in the lower 20s with highs in the mid-40s along with mostly sunshine and south winds. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid-30s with highs in the lower 50s along with gusty south winds. Rain chances will be increasing some Sunday, with some chances Monday into Tuesday.