Warmer Temperatures And Weekend Storm Chances

It’s been a bumpy night but those storms have ended.  We’ll track a few additional storms later today to the southeast with increasing heat index values through the end of the week.

The overnight thunderstorms continue to move rapidly east this morning with decreasing clouds from the west to east.  The system should effectively shove the boundary more southward allowing for any additional or afternoon storms to be focused mostly across southeastern OK or north Texas, but I’ll keep a low chance around the I-40 corridor later this afternoon with higher chances southeast.  Highs this afternoon will be tricky with a chance for temps to outperform the model suggestions by a few degrees.  This may allow highs to reach the mid or upper 80s, slightly above model guidance.  I’ll keep much of the area in the 84 to 87 range today.  Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s with south winds returning Thursday along with highs near 90.  Warm and humid weather will remain through the end of the week with Friday’s heat index values nearing 101 in spots along with gusty south winds from 15 to 30 mph.  Some active weather will be nearby the next few days as the pattern briefly changes into the weekend.

The upper air flow will quickly transition back to a southwesterly regime Thursday into the weekend allowing for one or more disturbances to bring storm chances back to northeastern OK.  Gusty south winds will be likely Friday into Saturday as this process occurs, pressure falls will be likely across Eastern Colorado into western Kansas allowing strong south winds developing across Oklahoma Friday into Saturday with even deeper moisture moving into the area.  There will be a slight chance for a few shower or storms Thursday evening into Friday morning along the OK-Kansas state line as a weak wave ejects into the central plains, but a stronger wave will round the base of the western U.S. trough and fire-up storms near northern OK Saturday night into Sunday with a slow-moving front.

 A boundary is expected to sharpen up across southern Kansas Saturday evening and slowly move southward into part of northern OK Sunday or Sunday night with a few rounds of showers and storms becoming likely, including the threat of slow-moving heavy rainfall producers.  Additionally, enough deep layer shear will exist near and northeast of the metro for a few strong to severe storms, even though most data support higher severe weather parameters placing across central Kansas. This general pattern will persist Sunday into Monday before mid-level heights rise across the southeastern U.S. and migrate northwest with time early next week.  This is the first true signal of a typical late June pattern developing that may give us a few days of no precipitation for the middle of next week, but extremely humid weather would persist.

WARN Radar

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone