Mild Weather For The 1st Day Of Fall Before Storm Chances Return

Welcome to Fall.  The official start of the autumnal equinox occurred this morning at 2:50 a.m. central.  A cold front moving southward this morning is bringing slightly drier air and mild weather into northeastern OK this morning.  Moisture quickly returns and storm chances will also return across part of the area this week with above average temps remaining.

 The cold front that slowly moved across the area yesterday is now located south of the area this morning, with most of the scattered showers and storms along and south of the I-40 corridor into the Red River Valley region.  A few may persist later today also in this general area, mostly across far southern OK along the Texoma Valley.  Slightly drier air will temporarily work its way across northeastern OK this morning with temps in the 60s for the pre-dawn hours and into the 70s midmorning.  Highs this afternoon will remain warm with most locations reaching the mid-80s along with northeast winds around 8 to 15mph.  Later tonight, the front to our south will begin moving northward as a quasi-warm front bringing moisture back into NE OK and southeastern Kansas.  The result will be increasing rain and storm chances during the day Tuesday, including later tonight into Tuesday morning.  This boundary should continue moving northward, or possibly become diffuse and reform north of the area Wednesday before taking another run at northern OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning.   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as moisture returns, but widespread severe weather is not expected as most of the stronger dynamics in the atmosphere will remain northward, across the central plains and upper Midwest Wednesday.  A few strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday across southeastern Kansas and far northern OK as the front attempts to move southward again reaching far northern OK. 

 Basically, this boundary will be in the vicinity of northern OK Thursday and Friday as the upper air pattern becomes more active from the southwest.  Additional showers and storms will remain possible both Thursday and Friday along this feature, including storm chances for the metro and northeastern OK.  The data remains inconclusive for Saturday but could bring the front southward again with additional rain and storm chances Saturday morning through part of the day. 

 Unfortunately, temps this week will not feature any true fall like weather conditions across NE OK, other than some brief pleasant conditions this morning across northern OK.  Highs will remain above the seasonal average today, mostly in the mid-80s.  We’ll keep highs down a notch or two Tuesday with the expected cloud cover and scattered storms across the area.  Wednesday through Friday features highs in the mid to upper 80s and morning low mostly in the lower 70s.   

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone