A welcome cold front is knocking on our door and ensures a nice cool-down as we close out the month of July. It brings the chance of rain and a few storms. What it doesn’t bring: long-lasting heat relief. A large ridge of high pressure is shifting westward for the time being, but is so dominant that its influence will encompass the state again by the weekend.
While we’ve yet to hit 100° in Tulsa, Heat Advisories have been a daily occurrence due to the amount of moisture in the air. Where our temperatures fall short, our heat index soars. We’ve seen values over 115° in eastern Oklahoma earlier this month so we’d be hard-pressed to call this a truly “mild” summer so far. This is why the incoming cold front will bring more relief than just the dip in the mercury. This front will finally displace some of the moist air and allow slightly drier air to settle into Green Country.
While we experience lower dewpoint temperatures (our measure of moisture), we have an increasing chance of rain into Friday as the ridge temporarily backs away. Only subtle waves of energy are noted to help trigger convection, but it may be enough for widely scattered showers and storms. Unlike that past few frontal boundaries in the area this summer, this one shouldn’t bring a widespread deluge. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, but many of us will be lucky to see enough just to settle the dust. The final round of showers and storms will likely occur Friday before that ridging squelches further development.
As the ridge strengthens over our area again, count on a rise in temperatures as we head into the weekend and month of August. The worst of the heat will stay west, but we could be back to the mid and upper 90s for highs. So far, I don’t see any triple-digit temperatures in our immediate future. Should this ridge remain centered out west into August, we’ll be in the line of fire for more storm systems to come rolling in from the northwest to bring us additional rain, keeping our temperatures in check. The 8 to 14 Day Outlook shows above-normal odds for rain during that time.