Just time for a brief update this afternoon. As Alan mentioned in his excellent morning discussion, we are definitely under the gun for severe weather this afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours. As you can see from the map on the right, the dry line has made it to near I-35 as of early this afternoon. You can also see that the winds behind the dry line veer sharply to a more westerly component whereas the winds ahead of the dry line are from a more S to SE direction. This increases the convergence along and ahead of the dry line making storms more likely than what we had last Sunday for example.
The colors on this particular map are what we refer to as Theta E which is not only a measure of surface moisture but also a rough indication of instability. Again, the instability and moisture are clearly maximized east of the dry line.
At the same time, the wind pattern aloft is also supportive of severe storms so all the ingredients seem to be in place for a very active afternoon/evening. Having said all that, this is Oklahoma after all and we are in the middle of a developing drought, so there some uncertainties. Bottom line is that I strongly suggest keeping a close eye on the weather through the afternoon and evening hours.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.