Weâ€™re off and running into the weekend. The forecast appears to be in good shape at this point and no major changes will be made to the extended periods, but I do want to mention some items of concern.
The latest computer runs continue to offer a few inconsistent signals for MCS development impacting southern Kansas or northern OK during the early morning time periods of Sunday morning and Monday. MCS is weather speak for â€œmesoscale convective systemâ€, and means a complex of thunderstorms. Right now we think the Monday morning time period may offer the better period for a cluster of storms to move across northern OK. Early morning time periods of Sunday and Monday will need to be watched for a higher coverage than our current 30%. Currently only a slight chance of storms will be possible.
Another item continues to be the placement of the actual boundary and whether it remains intact or becomes diffuse by early next week. Stated here in earlier discussions, itâ€™s very odd that a front would come into play in late July, but weâ€™ll keep the boundary intact and near the area through the period. Normally these boundaries would stay just a hair north of our area during late July. I currently think the boundary will stay just a hair north of Tulsa. If so, MCS activity may ride along the top side of the boundary and just skirt the area Sunday and Monday morning.
Iâ€™m beginning to the think the central Texas mid level low may end up having a pretty good influence on the area by offering lift and moisture Sunday into early next week.
Bottom line: Weâ€™ll end July and start August with maximum temperatures below seasonal averages and storm chances will be included in the forecast.
Dick has the noon and early evening covered today. Heâ€™ll post thoughts and possibly some changes to the forecast later today.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the weather!
I have left my morning discussion intact.
From 3:40 AM:
The front is located across southern Nebraska moving slowly south with showers and storms near the boundary, most numerous in northern Kansas. Meanwhile to our south, a mid level circulation that has provided much of central Texas with too much rain is located near south central Texas. These two features will have a role in our forecast for the next few days.
The Texas circulation will provide a few showers or storms for areas south of I-40 later today. The better time period would be from 4pm to 10pm and these will be rather spotty. We actually had a few showers pop up in Choctaw and Pushmataha County early last evening due to the influence of this circulation.
A few showers or isolated storms may also form again in Northwestern Arkansas today, but our attention now turns to the approaching front.
Model data continues to offer some varied solutions compared to previous runs but with the boundary near the area and the upper air pattern changing weâ€™ll keep a mention of some scattered storms through the next few days. The late night time period of Saturday night and Sunday morning could have an increased coverage across southern Kansas and Northern OK, but my confidence is low and Iâ€™ll keep a 30% pop across the board. The northwest flow aloft allows thunderstorm complexes that form well northwest our area to maintain themselves for long periods of time as they move into areas of higher moisture content.
Early next week the boundary should become diffuse and loose its identity, but the circulation to our south may still be in play. If for some reason the boundary can remain intact, our rain chances will be increasing. In fact, extended data now supports rain and storms with higher coverage to our south during the early portion of next week. While data keeps the higher probabilities to our south, weâ€™ll spread some low pops through the earlier portion of next week.
The thermal ridge should still be centered mainly west of the area keeping the really hot air also to our west.
Enjoy the Weather!