The shortwave Alan mentions in his discussion continues to move eastward and away from us. Some subsidence behind the shortwave is contributing to some mid level drying and the partly cloudy, very warm conditions we have this afternoon. A weakening cool front is also approaching from the west and will be shifting our winds around to a more northerly direction overnight. It will not cool us off much and winds should be returning to a southerly direction by late Tuesday. However, there will be a chance of showers and possibly some thunder for this evening and the overnight hours as the front moves through.
The stronger cold front Alan mentions for Wednesday is still on schedule and still looks to be dry. Look for gusty northerly winds for Wed and if the winds calm down enough a frost or a light freeze will be possible Thu morning.
The cut-off low we have been watching for days now will be lifting out of the Baja California area Fri and Sat, but the most recent projections will keep that energy south of us. Beyond that, the computer models start to diverge once again creating a great deal of uncertainty for the latter part of the weekend and going on into Thanksgiving week itself.
From 9:40 AM:
Scattered showers and storms continue this morning along and ahead of a short wave trough lifting out across OK and North TX this morning. A few storms may produce some small hail, but no organized severe weather is expected.
As the short wave is lifting eastward, clearing skies will occur across the northern and northwestern sections before a cold front arrives later this afternoon with more clouds and a few scattered showers and storms. By tomorrow morning the boundary should be to our south before stalling or washing out completely.
A strong front is still scheduled Wednesday morning, but itâ€™s unlikely this boundary will bring any rain to most of our area. Colder air will follow with highs closer to or slightly below normal. Thursday morning temperatures will be near the freezing mark for many locations.
Weâ€™ll continue to watch the cut off low near the Baja for a few showers or storms Friday late into Saturday, with another boundary near the area Sunday. Stay tuned.Alan Crone
From 4:10 AM:
A weak short wave is located near the area this morning providing lift for some scattered showers over the Eastern OK. A front is located from Northwestern Kansas to southwestern Kansas and will move southeast with time today. This boundary may also provide some scattered showers or storms later today as it draws closer to the area. I have kept Dickâ€™s previous pop numbers in place (40% today and 30% Tuesday) but there will be a higher coverage this morning for areas south of I-40 and east of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This should wave will translate eastward pretty quickly taking these morning showers also to the east quickly. So we should have some morning showers, then a break, then a possibility of a few more showers or storms later this afternoon or tonight. It doesnâ€™t appear to be a significant system.
A stronger cold front will arrive Wednesday morning bringing a cold air mass to the area once again for a few days before moderating by Friday or Saturday.
A cut off low (area of low pressure aloft that is removed from jet stream energy) is spinning near the Baja region this morning. Data attempts to kick this low back into the flow Thursday and has it approaching our area as a weak disturbance Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile a short wave trough in the northern stream will also drop down through the northern mountain regions. A surface cold front will more than likely arrive Saturday midday or evening bringing a possibility of another round of rain or storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Extended data has not been very good lately and I hesitate to hang the hat on anything right now past day 5, so I will not include the slight pop for Friday night late, and also for Saturday late into Sunday at this point. But this will remain a probability that could increase.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be near or above normal. The second half of the week will be colder.Alan Crone