Winter’s Comeback Imminent

Who moved San Diego's climate to Oklahoma??? That's the question on many people's minds as we "endure" another day of balmy January weather. Though it hasn't been in record-setting territory, over the past couple days, Tulsa has been within a stone's throw of a record high. Outside of some chilly overnight lows, it's hard to beat this kind of weather at any time of the year. When you consider our average high is 47°, it makes these conditions all the more remarkable.

The warmth is not relegated to Oklahoma. Above-normal readings are found all through the Midwest into the Northeast. The continual reduction in snow coverage is evident on the map above. The already meager snowpack to the north continues to melt away. Now, only 16% of the country has snow covering the ground. Our friends to the north are definitely wondering what's going on with these temperatures!

We know all too well that this kind of warmth is a bit too extreme to maintain this time of year. Believe it or not, the next week is climatologically the coldest period for Oklahoma in the year. With an abundance of bitter cold air still locked up in the Arctic, it's just a matter of time before a chunk of that moves to the south and ruins our sense of spring in January.

Fortunately for us, we are going to stair-step our way down to those readings. The first step towards cooler, more typical winter weather comes tonight. A cold front with more of a Pacific air mass (rather than Arctic) will push through the region. This will bring our temperatures down Saturday by about 10 degrees. An increase in cloud cover on Sunday will further reduce those temperatures. Despite an unsettled pattern for the first half of next week, mild enough air will remain in place to preclude wintry precipitation. Showers may dampen a few locations Sunday, but the main portion of a cut-off low will pass to our south Tuesday, bringing the best chance of rain with it then.

Jacket weather will give way to heavy coat weather by midweek. Behind that cut-off is a strong surge of Arctic air diving south along the lee side of the Rockies. The core of that cold air will move into the Upper Midwest, but we will see strong northerly winds with some of the coldest air of the season by Thursday. By that point, this glorious warmth will be nothing but a distant memory. Afternoon temperatures may not climb the 30s. Looking ahead, that cold won't stick around too long, but 70-degree readings may not be quick to return.

For snow-lovers, the wait for a winter wonderland will be prolonged. However, if you remember last year, January was awfully quiet until the final day of the month. Tulsa has not seen a completely snow-less calendar year since the early 1900s. I'm not expecting that to be the case this year. We have to remember, it only takes one or two moderate snowfalls to bring us to our yearly average of 9.7 inches. There's still ample time and winter will make a comeback – next week with the cold temperatures, beyond then, probably with some snow.

Have a great weekend! Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and "like" me on Facebook!