A Warming Trend

We expect another sunny afternoon with highs in the upper 40s.  The pattern will bring warmer air back to the region this weekend with an increase of gusty southwest winds by Sunday.  The fire danger will also be increasing Sunday into Monday.  

After this morning, the cold air will be sliding northeast away from the area and warmer air will be moving across the state this weekend.  Afternoon highs will move into the mid and upper 40s today with daytime highs Saturday in the upper 50s.  Highs Sunday and Monday should move into the mid or upper 60s with a chance of a few lower 70s Monday.  Mostly cloudy conditions will be expected Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of showers or storms Monday night across far eastern OK or western Arkansas. 

The colder air will return Tuesday but current data does not support another big surge of below normal temperatures.  We should top out Tuesday afternoon near 40.  

The upper air pattern will continue to support periodic plunges of arctic or polar air into the nation, but until the main pattern changes, most of the cold air will remain to the northeast of the state.  We've had a few cold plunges this winter, and even though we think the big arctic air will be moving southeast soon, most of it will remain to the northeast our regions.   

This means locations across the Midwest, the upper Midwest, and the northeast will have the higher likelihood of significant cold air outbreaks for the next two to three weeks.  We will occasionally get a glancing blow of the cold air, very similar to the past 48 hours but any cold air intrusion will be brief when focused on the next 10 days. 

The potential for winter precipitation across the state will not occur for at least another 7 days or slightly longer.  Again, our main upper level flow is not conducive in bringing the colder air southward while bringing the southern systems over the cold air.  These two features have been out of phase across the southern and central plains for most of the winter. This is due mainly to the prevailing La Nina pattern (that may be weakening) and the generally positive Arctic oscillation (which indicates that most of the cold air has been and will remain north).  

A quick reminder: our fire danger will be increasing this weekend into early next week.  Use caution.  

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