High Fire Danger
Those southerly winds have been on the increase through the early morning hours and will be quite strong and gusty for the rest of the day. As a result, temperatures actually started warming up shortly after midnight when the winds started picking up and we should make it well into the 60s this afternoon. Moisture will be slow to return though so the combination of gusty winds, very warm temperatures, and humidity levels dropping to near 30% this afternoon will result in a high fire danger situation. We will also have lots of sunshine for much of the day today giving way to mostly cloudy skies for tonight and much of Monday.
Our next cold front is slated to arrive after midnight Monday night so Monday will also be very warm and windy. In fact, we will start off Monday morning warmer than our normal daytime highs for this time of year and may very well set a record in that category. With such a warm start, daytime temperatures should top out around 70 degrees. Despite the mostly cloudy skies, there is only a slight chance of showers and that is for the extreme eastern counties late Monday and overnight. The deeper, quality moisture is being shunted further east of us due to a more SW wind component just above the surface. At the surface, those S to SW winds will be strong and gusty once again creating another high fire danger situation but at least the humidity levels will be higher which should help somewhat.
Tuesday will see another sharp cool down with gusty northerly winds, clearing skies and daytime temperatures struggling to get above 40. Wednesday morning will be the coldest of this week with temperatures likely dropping into the teens, but that afternoon will see a nice rebound well into the 40s. This is another short-lived cool down as temperatures will be rebounding for the rest of the week going into the coming weekend. Although there are indications of a weak boundary possibly making it into the more northern counties during the Thu-Fri time frame, temperatures will still be much above normal.
In fact, we could be approaching 70 again for daytime highs for this coming weekend along with gusty southerly winds. However, there is still no firm indication of a widespread rain or wintry weather event headed this way anytime soon. Some of the longer range guidance occasionally suggests something along those lines such as what the European Model is now showing for early that following week. However, that solution is a flip from previous solutions and is not supported by other guidance so until we see better continuity will maintain the status quo.
Keep in mind, this is Oklahoma and this is January, so things can change in a hurry. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.