Living in a Battleground State

No, I'm not referring to politics. This time of year, Oklahoma is a battleground state for different air masses. This has definitely been the case over the past week as temperatures soared into the 70s on Monday before the bottom gave way the next day with temperatures a good 30 to 40° colder. The battle of air masses will continue in the week to come as several systems race through the Plains states.

Even today, there is a wide spread in temperatures from north to south in the country. We call this a strong temperature gradient where those readings ranged from the -20s in the northern Plains to the 70s in Texas. (See the temperature map above). Oklahoma is caught in between as a frontal boundary is attempting to push cooler air into the state. However, a strong west-to-east jet stream will keep this frontal boundary close at hand. In the next three days this boundary will move through either as a warm or cold front FOUR times. Hence, we have a roller-coaster ride of temperatures to endure.

The biggest changes will occur this weekend as the boundary pushes through as a cold front and temperatures fall into the lower 20s on Saturday morning. The cool air mass stays in place, leaving us with high temperatures at or below normal for January. By Sunday, another kink in the jet stream allows this boundary to push north as a warm front. This means early next week will be a good 20° warmer than Saturday with gusty southerly winds and even an elevated fire danger. Finally, a moisture-laden system will move into our region by Tuesday, increasing our chances of rain.

Here's the disclaimer. The forecast models have been awfully inconsistent after a couple days out. This type of progressive pattern is subject to variations that could wildly shift our weather scenario with that boundary of cold and warm air very close by. From a forecaster's perspective, this is very frustrating! It's better than throwing darts, but still leaves more room than we'd like for changes.

There are no sure signs of snow through the end of the month for Tulsa. However, there are indications an Arctic plunge may occur just as we enter the month of February. A bit of a daunting signal after what happened last year, huh?! We'll, of course, keep you updated with what could be on the horizon. Until then, buckle up and enjoy the wild temperature ride!

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