A Weak Tuesday System

Temperatures today will move into the lower 50s with light south winds and mostly sunny conditions. The next chance of light precipitation will occur Tuesday into Wednesday morning. It's not expected

Monday, February 6th 2012, 5:34 am



Temperatures today will move into the lower 50s with light south winds and mostly sunny conditions.  The next chance of light precipitation will occur Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  It's not expected to be significant.  

We're watching our next system currently around the Utah vicinity.  This fast moving mid-level wave will slide across the central and southern plains Tuesday into Wednesday morning bringing a slight chance of light rain to southern Kansas and extreme northern OK.  The thermal profile in the model data would support  rain possibly changing to or mixing with  light snow by late Tuesday night, but the amounts in these, if any, would be very light.  This weak wave has been present in the data for the past 4 days, but very little precipitation will be possible.  We think the probability should be confined to areas north of highway 412 into southern and central Kansas.  We'll keep the mention for mainly light showers in the forecast but some wintry mix of light flurries will be a possibility.  The higher likelihood for some light snow may end up across far northwestern OK.  Again, this is a very weak system.

One of the main factors for any wintry precip with this system is actually the timing of bringing the system into the region during the overnight hours and consequently the coldest part of the period.  Combined with the mid-level thermal profile, any precipitation would more than likely start as light rain and transition to a light snow Tuesday night into pre-dawn Wednesday.   Again, this is a very slight chance event and most folks will not experience any precipitation.  

The air mass that arrives Wednesday will be on the cool side with highs in the lower 40s and mostly cloudy skies.  The air mass will quickly modify Thursday with highs around 50, but another cold front will move over the state Thursday evening into Friday morning bringing some chilly air to the region this weekend.  The Friday front appears dry.  I have made some adjustments to the extended numbers by taking the temperatures down slightly to reflect the latest numerical guidance.  Additional changes are possible.

 

The long range extended data continues to show signs of another strong looking system around Feb15-16th.  Stay tuned.

 

AC

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