A Nice Thursday

Morning clouds will thin to provide some sunshine today with highs in the mid-50s.  Another storm system will approach the area Friday night into Saturday.

The dry line slowed down to a crawl yesterday afternoon and the temperatures remained in the lower 50s across northern OK while locations south of I-40 moved into the upper 50s.  Central Oklahoma moved into the mid and upper 60s with sunshine while the clouds and showers remained across far eastern OK.  This system is now well east of the state and we're looking at decent weather today and tomorrow before the next storm will be nearing the southern plains Friday night.  

The model data continues to indicate the Friday night and Saturday system will be mainly confined to portions of Texas and southern OK, but some moisture will be topping the upper level low and moving across the northern part of the state.   We mentioned the different scenarios with the weekend system ( snow potential for NW OK) yesterday on the blog and I'll not go through all the different outcomes for our discussion this morning.  I have continued to suggest a cooler Saturday with a chance of precipitation across the northern part of the state while rain will be likely across the Red River Valley into North Texas.  We'll be watching the data carefully regarding the Saturday morning time period.  Recent model runs are not too suggestive of wintry precipitation across NE OK, but it still cannot be totally ruled out.  Our precip should be liquid and mainly confined to areas just south of Tulsa.

The 06NAM finished this morning suggesting the colder air will move into southern OK while the moisture is still wrapping around the upper level low Saturday afternoon.  This model run would support some snow across southern and east central Ok Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  The other models, including the GFS and EURO are much more progressive (fast) with the system and take the moisture eastward before the colder air wraps down into the southern part of the state.  I'm basically ignoring the 06NAM until we get a look at the incoming 12zrun.   

Another system will be approaching the southern plains by Monday with increasing winds and highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s.  This system early next week will be very strong with plenty of dynamics but moisture may be limited to far eastern OK.  We'll keep the chance of showers and storms in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday and some of the storms may end up being strong to severe.  We'll continue with a very active weather pattern for the next few days.  The forecast will no doubt go through some changes, so please check back often for updates.