Tracking A System

Mild temperatures are expected today but a storm system will bring shower chances back to the region soon with cooler air Saturday. 

This morning a few echoes are being seen on local radars, but very little is making its way to the surface.   I have seen a few small precipitation reports in the mesonet data, but it's not widespread.  There may be a few brief showers this morning across southern OK and I'll keep a 20 pop on the board for this slight chance.  Later this afternoon and evening the system currently to our southwest will bring some showers near northern OK with highs in the upper 50s near 60. The same 20% will also cover for the northern part of the state by late this afternoon into the early evening hours.

 Later tonight and early Saturday morning showers will be become more widespread across the state with cooler air moving into northeastern OK.  Higher rain chances will remain southward across Texas and southern OK, but the system will more than likely bring some rain and showers  northward into southern and east central Ok Saturday.  The Tulsa area will be on the northern edge of the system.  We'll keep the Saturday shower chances near 50% for Tulsa and rain will be likely across the I-40 area south and east. 

The model data this morning is not very bullish on the wintry mix chances for northern OK Saturday morning, but I suppose there's a slight chance of for a mix across far northwestern OK.  Yesterday's 06NAM suggested some wintry mix potential for southern OK late Saturday night as colder air moves southward and wraps into the system.  As you'll recall, I mentioned we would ignore this 06 NAM run yesterday and favor the previous runs.  This morning the data has reverted back to a more progressive regime and will move the moisture out of the state before the thermal profile would support any wintry issues across the southern part of the state late Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Sunday appears pleasant with sunny conditions and highs in the mid-50s.

Early next week a strong looking upper level system will be approaching the region but low level moisture may be lacking.  We'll keep the slight chance of isolated or scattered thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday morning, mainly across eastern OK.  Highs Monday will be in the lower 60s with strong south winds, but a cold front will pass the region Tuesday morning bringing slightly cooler air with highs in the 50s.

The long range data has been suggesting another intrusion of very cold air into the nation around the end of next week.  Stay tuned.

AC