Looking Good for Halloween.
Temperatures have made it back above normal this afternoon after another very cool start this morning. Southerly winds today should be shifting to a more northerly direction Wednesday as a weak boundary tries to make its way across the state. This system will not have much of an impact on our sensible weather though; so look for Wednesday morning to also get off to a cool start with lows near 40 and daytime highs will be near 70. Wind speeds will be rather light so Wednesday will be another pleasant fall day and conditions look great for the trick or treaters that evening. Fair skies, light winds, and temperatures possibly reaching the upper 50s by the end of the Halloween time all make for a pleasant evening.
Except for some occasional high level cirrus type clouds, we will continue to have lots of sunshine during the day and generally fair skies for the overnight hours right on through Friday. That obviously implies more dry weather through the rest of the week, but there will be a chance of showers/storms this weekend.
Between now and then, a return to southerly winds on Thursday will become gusty on Friday resulting in daytime highs near 80 Thursday afternoon and into the 80s for Friday afternoon. That is quite a turnaround from the last few days when we could not even get out of the 50s during the day.
The longer range guidance has now come to a better consensus regarding the next cool front and it looks to be arriving late in the day Saturday. So, Saturday will be warm and windy for much of the day with gusty southerly winds and temperatures starting off in the 50s and daytime highs in the 70s. However, this system will not pack near the punch of the last one so although we will be cooler for Sunday and Monday, daytime highs will still be well into the 60s if not near 70.
Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a very wet system either as most of the energy will be well to our north. As a result, will keep the rain chances at a measly 30% and hope I am wrong. The GFS is a little more bullish with the areal coverage for Saturday evening/night and the ECMWF is a bit drier but does show a little better coverage further south for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Either way you look at it, this will not be a drought breaker.
The early part of next week looks to see more of our pleasant fall weather, but still not big rainmakers are in sight. There are hints of a stronger system coming our way in time for that following weekend, but am not going to jump out on that limb just yet.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.