Tuesday Morning Update

We're experiencing some of the coldest air of the season this morning.  These readings haven't been this cold since last February.  The dry air, clear sky, and light wind allowed morning readings to drop into the lower and mid-teens in most locations across the northern portion of the state.  A slow warming trend begins this afternoon with highs moving into the mid and upper 40s.  We'll be moving into the 50s Wednesday and Thursday before another stout looking system nears the area Friday night with a chance of showers and storms.  Unfortunately, our low level moisture will be "thin" and we're not expecting a high coverage of showers or storms with the Friday evening and Saturday morning system.

We will see an upper level wave pass the area this afternoon and tonight.  This will only produce a few high clouds on occasion through the midday period but sunshine should be the dominate sky condition.

The main upper air pattern is currently dominated but a trough across the central U.S. and a surface ridge of high pressure parked across NE OK.  As the next upper level system approaches the west coast this morning, our winds will return to the south as the surface ridge moves eastward.  This will occur as the pressure slowly begins to fall to our west.  The temps should begin making a slow climb back up to some warming air soon, but the morning lows will remain on the cold side with temps tomorrow morning in the lower 20s and near 30 for Thursday morning.  

Our main forecast issue remains the Friday evening and Saturday time period.  A stout looking upper air system will move across the southern plains allowing a surface area of low pressure to develop across NW OK Friday afternoon.  Moisture will attempt to rapidly move directly ahead of the system Friday afternoon and evening, but it may be too late and not enough.  If this system could be delayed a day or two, we would be in the running for a decent coverage of storms.  But at this point, I think it's prudent to keep only a very slight chance of showers and storms in the forecast for Friday evening and early Saturday morning. 

The remainder of the 7 day period is unsettled with various solutions in the model data including a fast moving Alberta clipper moving into NE OK Monday afternoon and evening or a southern stream system developing and moving across the southern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.  I'll skip some of the details at this point since the confidence is very low for this portion of the forecast.  Our office has sided with more of a GFS solution meaning a shot of colder air is possible Monday evening into Tuesday.   Stay tuned.

Yesterday the high in Tulsa was 36 recorded at 4:16pm.

The daily normal average high is 50 and 30 is the low.

Daily records include 76 from 1929 and a low of 4 from 1917.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter @alancrone

Thanks for reading the shortened version of the Tuesday morning weather discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone