Monday Morning Update

After a super great weather day Sunday across the state, we're expecting more of the same today with highs in the mid-50s with mostly sunny conditions.  A few high clouds will be likely later this afternoon and evening.  A storm system will arrive soon bringing a chance of rain and showers to the region.  Extended data supports much colder air arriving by the weekend.

 The split stream flow continues with the southern stream offering a strong storm system to move across the southern U.S. during the next 36 to 48 hours before lifting northeast into the central plains.  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern Texas with rain extending northward into parts of Oklahoma.  Model output from the various data support the possibility of some much needed rainfall across the state, but the higher totals will more than likely occur south or west of Tulsa.   

GFS and EURO data are closely centered regarding the track of the system and the associated rainfall.  The last run of the NAM is an outlier and keeps the system slightly more west of our area as it lifts out to the northeast Thursday morning.  Regardless of the exact surface parameters at this point, the rain chances should be somewhat high for the Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning time period.  There may still be some timing issues regarding exact start and stop parameters that may be tweaked during the next 24 hours.  

Temps Tuesday and Wednesday will remain cool but not cold enough to support wintry precipitation with this event for most locations.  

Temps Thursday and Friday may briefly move back above normal with highs Friday afternoon in the lower or mid 60s but a strong cold front will move across the Saturday morning bringing cold air back to the region Sunday and Monday.  There will be a small chance for showers or storms with the Saturday frontal passage.  The temperature profile Sunday would support wintry precipitation, but most moisture should be east of the area Sunday into Monday.  We'll keep watching data carefully and make adjustments to the forecast as needed.  

The high in Tulsa Sunday afternoon was 49 recorded at 3:43pm.

Our normal daily average high is now 47 and the low is 27. 

Daily records include a high of 77 from 1965 and the low of -5 from 1912.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV